Kasımpaşa
vs
Samsunspor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kasımpaşa
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor
| Probability | Kasımpaşa | Draw | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.4% | 24.8% | 21.8% |
| Market | 37.8% | 28.0% | 34.2% |
| Final | 41.7% | 27.2% | 31.1% |
| Edge | +15.6% | -3.3% | -12.4% |
Why Kasımpaşa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kasımpaşa below the model: +15.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor match preview
Kasımpaşa hosts Samsunspor in a Süper Lig clash with Kasımpaşa holding a 41% probability of winning, while Samsunspor stands at 32%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Both teams are expected to contribute to the scoreline, with a 58% chance of both teams scoring and a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Recent form shows Kasımpaşa with mixed results, recording one win, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches. In contrast, Samsunspor has struggled significantly, losing four consecutive games before securing a win. The expected goals for Kasımpaşa are 1.86, while Samsunspor's expected goals sit at 1.12, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor team news
Kasımpaşa news
- A. Karapo — injury
- K. Corekci — achilles tendon injury
- M. Ouanes — muscle injury
Samsunspor news
- C. Yuksel — injury
- J. Assoumou — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor attack and defence ratings
Kasımpaşa
Samsunspor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kasımpaşa | 41.7% | 2.40 | +15.6% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.6% | 2.15 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kasımpaşa | 41.7% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Samsunspor | 31.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% |
| No | 41.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kasımpaşa win | 31.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 46.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.7% |
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor stats
Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor recent form
| Kasımpaşa |
LDWDDW |
| Samsunspor |
LLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor season so far
Kasımpaşa record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Samsunspor record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Kasımpaşa | Samsunspor | Friendlies Clubs | 3-0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Kasımpaşa | Samsunspor | Süper Lig | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-17 | Samsunspor | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-29 | Samsunspor | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig | 0-2 |
| 2024-10-26 | Kasımpaşa | Samsunspor | Süper Lig | 1-4 |
| 2024-04-27 | Kasımpaşa | Samsunspor | Süper Lig | 1-0 |
| 2023-12-09 | Samsunspor | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.4%, draw 28.1%, away 34.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.54 | 3.48 | 2.86 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.44 | 3.34 | 2.74 |
| Pinnacle | 2.48 | 3.46 | 2.88 |
| SBO | 2.33 | 3.02 | 2.56 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .