Başakşehir
vs
Gaziantep FK
Garuda Lions Prediction: Başakşehir
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK
| Probability | Başakşehir | Draw | Gaziantep FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.2% | 23.8% | 17.0% |
| Market | 56.8% | 23.1% | 20.0% |
| Final | 57.4% | 23.3% | 19.3% |
| Edge | +2.4% | +0.6% | -3.0% |
Why Başakşehir
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.95.
- The market prices Başakşehir below the model: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK match preview
Başakşehir is favored to win against Gaziantep FK, with a 57% probability according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which has a 10% probability. Expected goals indicate Başakşehir at 1.93 and Gaziantep FK at 0.95, suggesting a significant offensive advantage for the home team.
Recent form shows Başakşehir struggling with two draws and three losses in their last six matches, while Gaziantep FK has a mixed record with two losses, a draw, and two wins. In their last two encounters, Başakşehir has secured two victories over Gaziantep FK, highlighting a favorable head-to-head record. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK team news
Başakşehir news
- E. Visca — injury
Gaziantep FK news
- F. Bavuk — hamstring injury
- N. Sangare — back injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.88
Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK attack and defence ratings
Başakşehir
Gaziantep FK
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Başakşehir | 57.4% | 1.74 | +2.4% | 1.68 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Başakşehir | 57.4% |
| Draw | 23.3% | |
| Gaziantep FK | 19.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.4% |
| No | 46.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Başakşehir win | 35.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 40.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-0 | 10.5% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK stats
Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK recent form
| Başakşehir |
DWLLDL |
| Gaziantep FK |
LLDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK season so far
Başakşehir record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Gaziantep FK record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Gaziantep FK | Başakşehir | Süper Lig | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-22 | Başakşehir | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig | 5-1 |
| 2025-04-20 | Başakşehir | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig | 2-1 |
| 2024-11-23 | Gaziantep FK | Başakşehir | Süper Lig | 3-0 |
| 2024-02-24 | Gaziantep FK | Başakşehir | Süper Lig | 0-2 |
| 2023-10-07 | Başakşehir | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig | 2-0 |
| 2023-05-30 | Başakşehir | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig | 3-0 |
| 2023-01-05 | Gaziantep FK | Başakşehir | Süper Lig | 1-1 |
| 2022-02-12 | Başakşehir | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig | 2-0 |
| 2021-09-22 | Gaziantep FK | Başakşehir | Süper Lig | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.6%, draw 23.0%, away 20.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.67 | 4.32 | 5.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.95 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.68 | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 4.15 | 4.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.63 | 4.23 | 4.89 |
| SBO | 1.58 | 3.65 | 4.14 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .