Samsunspor
vs
Trabzonspor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Trabzonspor
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor
| Probability | Samsunspor | Draw | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.5% | 25.3% | 44.2% |
| Market | 26.5% | 25.7% | 47.8% |
| Final | 27.5% | 25.6% | 46.9% |
| Edge | +4.0% | -0.4% | -3.6% |
Why Trabzonspor
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.43.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor match preview
Samsunspor faces Trabzonspor in the Süper Lig with kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. Current model probabilities indicate a 31% chance for Samsunspor to win, a 25% chance for a draw, and a 44% likelihood of a Trabzonspor victory. The expected goals for Samsunspor stand at 1.43, while Trabzonspor is projected to score 1.75. The match is anticipated to feature over 2.5 goals at a rate of 62% and both teams to score at 64%.
Recent form shows Samsunspor struggling with four consecutive losses, followed by a draw and a single win, while Trabzonspor has had a mixed run with two wins and three losses in their last six matches. In their last two encounters, Trabzonspor has secured one win and one draw against Samsunspor, who has yet to claim a victory in this head-to-head matchup.
Samsunspor and Trabzonspor team news
Samsunspor news
- A. Sousa — muscle injury
- E. Tavsan — muscle injury
- F. Kaya — muscle injury
- J. Assoumou — muscle injury
- O. Ohlenschlaeger — knee injury
Trabzonspor news
- A. Batagov — knee injury
- O. Yokuslu — knee injury
- R. Malinovskyi — knee injury
- T. Jabol-Folcarelli — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Samsunspor and Trabzonspor expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.17
Samsunspor and Trabzonspor attack and defence ratings
Samsunspor
Trabzonspor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Trabzonspor | 46.9% | 2.13 | -3.6% | 2.06 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Samsunspor | 27.5% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Trabzonspor | 46.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.8% |
| No | 36.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Trabzonspor win | 24.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 55.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor stats
Samsunspor and Trabzonspor recent form
| Samsunspor |
LLLLWD |
| Trabzonspor |
WLWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Samsunspor and Trabzonspor season so far
Samsunspor record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Trabzonspor record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Samsunspor | Trabzonspor | Türkiye Kupası | 0-0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Samsunspor | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig | 0-3 |
| 2025-08-31 | Trabzonspor | Samsunspor | Süper Lig | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-25 | Trabzonspor | Samsunspor | Süper Lig | 2-2 |
| 2025-01-04 | Samsunspor | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-04 | Samsunspor | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig | 3-1 |
| 2024-01-11 | Trabzonspor | Samsunspor | Süper Lig | 2-1 |
| 2022-12-21 | Trabzonspor | Samsunspor | Türkiye Kupası | 3-0 |
| 2020-08-29 | Samsunspor | Trabzonspor | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2012-01-15 | Trabzonspor | Samsunspor | Süper Lig | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.5%, draw 25.7%, away 47.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.52 | 3.84 | 2.06 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| Betano | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Betfair | 3.70 | 3.70 | 1.90 |
| Dafabet | 3.60 | 3.70 | 2.00 |
| Marathonbet | 3.38 | 3.68 | 1.97 |
| Pinnacle | 3.69 | 3.66 | 1.97 |
| SBO | 3.26 | 3.33 | 1.92 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .