Kocaelispor
vs
Rizespor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kocaelispor
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.93.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Kocaelispor vs Rizespor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kocaelispor vs Rizespor
| Probability | Kocaelispor | Draw | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.1% | 28.6% | 22.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.1% | 28.6% | 22.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Kocaelispor
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Kocaelispor vs Rizespor match preview
Kocaelispor faces Rizespor in an upcoming Süper Lig match, with Kocaelispor holding a 49% probability of winning, compared to Rizespor's 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Kocaelispor, with an expected goals tally of 1.50 for Kocaelispor and 0.93 for Rizespor. Recent form shows Kocaelispor with a mixed record of W-L-L-W-L-W, while Rizespor has struggled with L-L-D-W-L-W.
In their last two encounters, Kocaelispor has not secured a win against Rizespor, recording 0 wins and 1 draw, with Rizespor winning once. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 44%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 48%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kocaelispor and Rizespor expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.43
Kocaelispor and Rizespor attack and defence ratings
Kocaelispor
Rizespor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kocaelispor vs Rizespor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kocaelispor | 49.1% | 2.04 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.7% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.9% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kocaelispor | 49.1% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Rizespor | 22.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.3% |
| No | 51.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kocaelispor win | 25.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 50.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 11.9% | |
| 0-0 | 10.0% |
Kocaelispor vs Rizespor stats
Kocaelispor and Rizespor recent form
| Kocaelispor |
WLLWLW |
| Rizespor |
LLDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kocaelispor and Rizespor season so far
Kocaelispor record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Rizespor record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kocaelispor vs Rizespor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Rizespor | Kocaelispor | Süper Lig | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Kocaelispor | Rizespor | Süper Lig | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.