Eyüpspor
vs
Kocaelispor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kocaelispor
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.74.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor
| Probability | Eyüpspor | Draw | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.7% | 26.9% | 57.5% |
| Market | 23.9% | 28.3% | 47.8% |
| Final | 21.9% | 27.9% | 50.2% |
| Edge | -2.1% | -0.3% | +2.4% |
Why Kocaelispor
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kocaelispor below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.5% per unit staked (our 50.2% × 2.00 − 1).
Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor match preview
Eyüpspor is set to face Kocaelispor in their upcoming Süper Lig match. Eyüpspor's recent form has been concerning, with six consecutive losses, while Kocaelispor has had a mixed run, including a recent win and a draw. According to our model, Eyüpspor has a 17% chance of winning, whereas Kocaelispor is favored with a 54% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1 in favor of Kocaelispor, with expected goals of 0.71 for Eyüpspor and 1.47 for Kocaelispor.
In terms of scoring, there is a 40% likelihood that both teams will find the net, while there is a 37% chance of more than 2.5 goals being scored in the match. Historically, Kocaelispor has dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two head-to-head matches against Eyüpspor.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.36
Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor attack and defence ratings
Eyüpspor
Kocaelispor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kocaelispor | 50.2% | 1.99 | +2.4% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.5% | 2.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eyüpspor | 21.9% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Kocaelispor | 50.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.9% |
| No | 57.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kocaelispor win | 32.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 42.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-2 | 12.4% | |
| 1-1 | 12.4% |
Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor stats
Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor recent form
| Eyüpspor |
LLLLLL |
| Kocaelispor |
DWLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor season so far
Eyüpspor record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 10 matches.
Kocaelispor record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Eyüpspor | Kocaelispor | Süper Lig | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Kocaelispor | Eyüpspor | Süper Lig | 1-0 |
| 2024-01-20 | Kocaelispor | Eyüpspor | 1. Lig | 2-1 |
| 2023-08-21 | Eyüpspor | Kocaelispor | 1. Lig | 2-0 |
| 2022-05-14 | Eyüpspor | Kocaelispor | 1. Lig | 2-1 |
| 2021-12-19 | Kocaelispor | Eyüpspor | 1. Lig | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.9%, draw 28.3%, away 47.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.07 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Bet365 | 3.70 | 3.30 | 1.95 |
| BetVictor | 3.80 | 3.25 | 1.91 |
| Betano | 4.25 | 3.30 | 1.88 |
| Betfair | 3.90 | 3.30 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.95 | 3.40 | 1.99 |
| Marathonbet | 3.90 | 3.35 | 1.92 |
| Pinnacle | 4.20 | 3.40 | 1.98 |
| SBO | 3.49 | 3.04 | 1.95 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.20 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .