Çorum FK
vs
Fenerbahçe
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fenerbahçe
1 – 2 Predicted score · 6% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Fenerbahçe is the favourite, not a value bet.
Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe
| Probability | Çorum FK | Draw | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.0% | 22.0% | 28.0% |
| Market | 21.8% | 23.8% | 54.4% |
| Final | 28.9% | 23.3% | 47.8% |
| Edge | +7.0% | -0.4% | -6.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.9% per unit staked (our 47.8% × 1.76 − 1).
Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe match preview
Çorum FK faces Fenerbahçe in the Süper Lig with a projected win probability of 30% for Çorum FK, 24% for a draw, and 47% for Fenerbahçe. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 6%. The expected goals indicate a stronger offensive showing from Çorum FK at 2.14 compared to Fenerbahçe's 1.54.
In terms of recent form, Çorum FK has recorded three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Fenerbahçe has two wins, three losses, and one draw in the same period. Our model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 70%, indicating an expectation for an engaging match. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Çorum FK and Fenerbahçe expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.83
Çorum FK and Fenerbahçe attack and defence ratings
Çorum FK
Fenerbahçe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fenerbahçe | 47.8% | 2.09 | -6.6% | 1.76 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Çorum FK | 28.9% |
| Draw | 23.3% | |
| Fenerbahçe | 47.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.2% |
| No | 27.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fenerbahçe win | 13.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.3% | |
| Loss | 72.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe stats
Çorum FK and Fenerbahçe recent form
| Çorum FK |
WLWWLW |
| Fenerbahçe |
WLLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Çorum FK and Fenerbahçe season so far
Çorum FK record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fenerbahçe record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.8%, draw 23.8%, away 54.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.54 | 4.11 | 1.76 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.70 |
| BetVictor | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.70 |
| Betano | 4.45 | 3.90 | 1.70 |
| Betfair | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 4.30 | 4.00 | 1.76 |
| Marathonbet | 4.35 | 3.94 | 1.69 |
| Pinnacle | 4.59 | 4.02 | 1.71 |
| SBO | 3.85 | 3.59 | 1.70 |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 3.70 | 1.73 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .