Beşiktaş
vs
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Garuda Lions Prediction: Beşiktaş
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.41.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Beşiktaş is the favourite, not a value bet.
Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
| Probability | Beşiktaş | Draw | Gençlerbirliği S.K. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.0% | 20.4% | 20.6% |
| Market | 77.2% | 14.3% | 8.5% |
| Final | 72.7% | 15.8% | 11.5% |
| Edge | -4.6% | +1.5% | +3.0% |
Why Beşiktaş
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.41.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.24, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.9% per unit staked (our 72.7% × 1.24 − 1).
Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. match preview
Beşiktaş hosts Gençlerbirliği S.K. in the Süper Lig with a strong probability of victory for the home side at 72%. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability, and suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 70%. Expected goals for Beşiktaş stand at 2.40, while Gençlerbirliği S.K. is projected at 1.24.
Recent form indicates that Beşiktaş has recorded two wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Gençlerbirliği S.K. has struggled, with only one win in their last six. In their last two encounters, Beşiktaş has won once, and Gençlerbirliği S.K. has also secured one victory, indicating a competitive matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Beşiktaş and Gençlerbirliği S.K. expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.82
Beşiktaş and Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack and defence ratings
Beşiktaş
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beşiktaş | 72.7% | 1.38 | -4.6% | 1.24 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.5% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beşiktaş | 72.7% |
| Draw | 15.8% | |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 11.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.6% |
| No | 30.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 27.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Beşiktaş win | 38.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 41.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.0% |
| 1-1 | 8.2% | |
| 3-1 | 7.2% |
Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. stats
Beşiktaş and Gençlerbirliği S.K. recent form
| Beşiktaş |
LDWDLW |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. |
WLLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Beşiktaş and Gençlerbirliği S.K. season so far
Beşiktaş record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Gençlerbirliği S.K. record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig | 0-2 |
| 2025-10-18 | Beşiktaş | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Süper Lig | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 77.2%, draw 14.3%, away 8.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.22 | 7.55 | 13.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 6.25 | 11.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.18 | 6.50 | 11.50 |
| Betano | 1.24 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 6.50 | 11.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.23 | 6.80 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.20 | 6.60 | 11.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.19 | 7.26 | 12.07 |
| SBO | 1.21 | 5.61 | 8.49 |
| William Hill | 1.20 | 6.50 | 10.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .