Alanyaspor
vs
Trabzonspor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Trabzonspor
0 – 2 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 0.87.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor
| Probability | Alanyaspor | Draw | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13.2% | 21.2% | 65.6% |
| Market | 19.8% | 24.0% | 56.3% |
| Final | 18.1% | 23.3% | 58.6% |
| Edge | -1.6% | -0.7% | +2.3% |
Why Trabzonspor
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Trabzonspor below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.4% per unit staked (our 58.6% × 1.70 − 1).
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor match preview
Alanyaspor faces Trabzonspor in an upcoming Süper Lig match, with the model predicting a 19% chance of an Alanyaspor victory, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 57% likelihood of a Trabzonspor win. The expected goals are 0.99 for Alanyaspor and 1.87 for Trabzonspor, suggesting a dominant performance from the visitors. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 0-2, occurring with a 10% probability.
Recent form indicates a stark contrast between the two teams; Alanyaspor has recorded two losses, one draw, and two wins in their last five matches, while Trabzonspor has achieved six consecutive victories. Both teams have a 54% probability of scoring, with the model also indicating a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor attack and defence ratings
Alanyaspor
Trabzonspor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Trabzonspor | 58.6% | 1.71 | +2.3% | 1.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.9% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Trabzonspor win | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alanyaspor | 18.1% |
| Draw | 23.3% | |
| Trabzonspor | 58.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% |
| No | 47.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 41.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Trabzonspor win | 42.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 34.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 11.2% |
| 1-1 | 10.1% | |
| 1-2 | 9.8% |
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor stats
Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor recent form
| Alanyaspor |
LLLDWD |
| Trabzonspor |
LWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor season so far
Alanyaspor record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Trabzonspor record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Alanyaspor | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Trabzonspor | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.8%, draw 24.0%, away 56.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.16 | 4.11 | 1.68 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 3.80 | 1.62 |
| BetVictor | 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.62 |
| Betano | 4.75 | 3.80 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 4.90 | 4.00 | 1.68 |
| Marathonbet | 4.95 | 3.94 | 1.62 |
| Pinnacle | 5.06 | 4.07 | 1.65 |
| SBO | 4.05 | 3.41 | 1.70 |
| William Hill | 4.50 | 3.75 | 1.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .