Göztepe
vs
Başakşehir
Garuda Lions Prediction: Göztepe
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.53.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Göztepe is the favourite, not a value bet.
Göztepe vs Başakşehir overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Göztepe vs Başakşehir
| Probability | Göztepe | Draw | Başakşehir |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.0% | 21.8% | 25.2% |
| Market | 46.3% | 25.6% | 28.1% |
| Final | 48.0% | 24.7% | 27.4% |
| Edge | +1.7% | -1.0% | -0.7% |
Why Göztepe
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.53.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.2% per unit staked (our 48.0% × 2.09 − 1).
Göztepe vs Başakşehir match preview
Göztepe enters this match with a strong recent form, having recorded three wins, two draws, and one loss in their last seven matches. Their expected goals tally stands at 2.14, suggesting a potent attacking threat. In contrast, Başakşehir has struggled lately, with two wins and four losses in their last six games, and an expected goals figure of 1.35, indicating a less effective offense.
The model predicts a 55% probability of a Göztepe victory, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. Additionally, there is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match and a 66% probability that both teams will score. The head-to-head record shows both teams have won once in their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Göztepe and Başakşehir expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.76
Göztepe and Başakşehir attack and defence ratings
Göztepe
Başakşehir
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Göztepe vs Başakşehir markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Göztepe | 48.0% | 2.09 | +1.7% | 2.09 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Göztepe | 48.0% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Başakşehir | 27.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.7% |
| No | 29.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Göztepe win | 33.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 47.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.9% |
| 1-1 | 8.7% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Göztepe vs Başakşehir stats
Göztepe and Başakşehir recent form
| Göztepe |
WWWWDD |
| Başakşehir |
WLWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Göztepe and Başakşehir season so far
Göztepe record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Başakşehir record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Göztepe vs Başakşehir head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Başakşehir | Göztepe | Süper Lig | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Göztepe | Başakşehir | Süper Lig | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-28 | Göztepe | Başakşehir | Süper Lig | 4-1 |
| 2024-11-30 | Başakşehir | Göztepe | Süper Lig | 4-1 |
| 2023-02-25 | Göztepe | Başakşehir | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
| 2022-12-20 | Başakşehir | Göztepe | Türkiye Kupası | 3-1 |
| 2022-01-22 | Başakşehir | Göztepe | Süper Lig | 1-2 |
| 2021-09-12 | Göztepe | Başakşehir | Süper Lig | 2-1 |
| 2021-02-14 | Göztepe | Başakşehir | Süper Lig | 2-1 |
| 2020-10-03 | Başakşehir | Göztepe | Süper Lig | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Göztepe vs Başakşehir odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.3%, draw 25.6%, away 28.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.09 | 3.78 | 3.48 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 3.65 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.04 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.00 | 3.62 | 3.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.06 | 3.73 | 3.39 |
| SBO | 2.01 | 3.30 | 3.04 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .