Başakşehir
vs
Samsunspor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Başakşehir
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 1.09.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Başakşehir vs Samsunspor
| Probability | Başakşehir | Draw | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.7% | 19.6% | 14.7% |
| Market | 50.9% | 24.7% | 24.4% |
| Final | 54.6% | 23.4% | 22.0% |
| Edge | +3.7% | -1.3% | -2.4% |
Why Başakşehir
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Başakşehir below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.6% per unit staked (our 54.6% × 1.88 − 1).
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor match preview
Başakşehir is favored in their upcoming match against Samsunspor, with a 66% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for Başakşehir stand at 2.40, while Samsunspor is projected to score 1.09. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Additionally, there is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% probability that both teams will score.
Recent form indicates a stark contrast between the two teams, with Başakşehir recording a win, draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Samsunspor is on a six-match losing streak. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Başakşehir has secured two wins against Samsunspor, who have yet to achieve a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Başakşehir and Samsunspor expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.49
Başakşehir and Samsunspor attack and defence ratings
Başakşehir
Samsunspor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Başakşehir | 54.6% | 1.83 | +3.7% | 1.88 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Başakşehir win | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Başakşehir | 54.6% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Samsunspor | 22.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% |
| No | 38.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Başakşehir win | 44.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 34.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 2-0 | 8.8% | |
| 1-1 | 8.7% |
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor stats
Başakşehir and Samsunspor recent form
| Başakşehir |
WDWLLD |
| Samsunspor |
LLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Başakşehir and Samsunspor season so far
Başakşehir record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Samsunspor record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Başakşehir | Samsunspor | Süper Lig | 3-0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Samsunspor | Başakşehir | Süper Lig | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.9%, draw 24.7%, away 24.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 4.01 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.87 | 3.85 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 3.85 | 3.84 |