Kasımpaşa
vs
Beşiktaş
Garuda Lions Prediction: Beşiktaş
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Beşiktaş is the favourite, not a value bet.
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş
| Probability | Kasımpaşa | Draw | Beşiktaş |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.5% | 25.9% | 35.6% |
| Market | 22.7% | 24.8% | 52.5% |
| Final | 26.7% | 25.1% | 48.3% |
| Edge | +3.9% | +0.3% | -4.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.84, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.2% per unit staked (our 48.3% × 1.84 − 1).
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş match preview
Kasımpaşa faces Beşiktaş in a Süper Lig matchup with kickoff scheduled for November 1, 2026. The probabilities indicate a 27% chance for Kasımpaşa to win, while Beşiktaş has a 48% chance, and a draw stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, occurring with an 8% likelihood. Both teams show a strong tendency to score, with a 64% probability that both will find the net, and a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Kasımpaşa has recorded two wins, one loss, one draw, and two additional draws in their last six matches. Beşiktaş's recent performance shows a draw, a loss, two wins, another loss, and a final win in their last six games. The expected goals for Kasımpaşa is 1.60, while Beşiktaş has an expected goal figure of 1.53.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.12
Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş attack and defence ratings
Kasımpaşa
Beşiktaş
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beşiktaş | 48.3% | 2.07 | -4.2% | 1.84 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kasımpaşa | 26.7% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Beşiktaş | 48.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% |
| No | 36.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Beşiktaş win | 17.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 64.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-2 | 8.2% |
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş stats
Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş season so far
Kasımpaşa record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Beşiktaş record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | Beşiktaş | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Kasımpaşa | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.7%, draw 24.8%, away 52.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.28 | 3.96 | 1.84 |
| Betano | 4.20 | 3.85 | 1.82 |
| Marathonbet | 4.10 | 3.80 | 1.76 |