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Süper Lig · ·Matchday 11

Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa

Garuda Lions Prediction: Kasımpaşa

0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.97.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on Kasımpaşa

Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep

Gaziantep FK 33%
Draw 27%
Kasımpaşa 40%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Kasımpaşa wins
40%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
92%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
52%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
0 – 1
11% of simulated outcomes

Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGaziantep FKDrawKasımpaşa
Model20.8%26.6%52.7%
Market37.1%27.3%35.6%
Final33.0%27.1%39.9%
Edge-4.1%-0.2%+4.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Kasımpaşa

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.97.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Kasımpaşa below our published probability: +4.3 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.73, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.9% per unit staked (our 39.9% × 2.73 − 1).

Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa match preview

Gaziantep FK faces Kasımpaşa in their upcoming Süper Lig match, with kickoff scheduled for November 6, 2026. According to our model, Gaziantep FK has a 33% probability of winning, while Kasımpaşa is favored at 39%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, with an 11% chance. Expected goals suggest Gaziantep FK will score 0.97, compared to Kasımpaşa's 1.68, indicating a potential struggle for the home side.

Recent form shows Gaziantep FK on a poor run, with five consecutive losses followed by a draw, while Kasımpaşa has shown more resilience, recording two wins and two draws in their last five matches. In their last ten encounters, Gaziantep FK has secured three wins, while Kasımpaşa has won five times, highlighting a competitive history between the teams.

Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa team news

injuries & suspensions

Gaziantep FK news

  • A. Kizildag — inactive
  • F. Bavuk — hamstring injury
  • K. Tobiasz — inactive
  • N. Sangare — back injury
  • O. Ozcicek — inactive
  • S. Dursun — inactive
  • S. Hansen — inactive
  • U. Meleke — injury

Kasımpaşa news

  • A. Karapo — injury
  • F. Diabate — inactive
  • G. Frimpong — injury
  • K. Corekci — achilles tendon injury
  • K. Mouanga — inactive
  • M. Ouanes — muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Gaziantep FK ↓ / Kasımpaşa → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 11% 10% 1 13% 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 49%
No goals 8%

Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa expected goals

Gaziantep FK 0.97
Kasımpaşa 1.68

Total expected goals: 2.65

Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa attack and defence ratings

Gaziantep FK

Attack 0.70 -30%
Defence 1.28 +28%

Kasımpaşa

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Süper Lig

Before and after this match

Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Kasımpaşa 39.9% 2.51 +4.3% 2.73
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.6% 1.98 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.8% 1.93 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.9% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.3% 2.11 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Gaziantep FK33.0%
Draw27.1%
Kasımpaşa39.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.4%
Under 2.550.6%
Both teams to scoreYes51.8%
No48.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.1%
12 (either side)72.9%
X2 (draw or away)67.0%
Handicap -1Kasımpaşa win29.3%
Push (exactly one goal)23.4%
Loss47.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.7%
0-110.7%
0-29.9%
Compare prices for this pick

Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa stats

Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa recent form

newest first
Gaziantep FK LLLLLD
Kasımpaşa DWWLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa season so far

league record

Gaziantep FK record

  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
  • 59% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Kasımpaşa record

  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Gaziantep FK wins 2Draws 5Kasımpaşa wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-09Gaziantep FKKasımpaşaSüper Lig2-1
2025-08-30KasımpaşaGaziantep FKSüper Lig2-3
2025-05-24Gaziantep FKKasımpaşaSüper Lig2-2
2025-01-05KasımpaşaGaziantep FKSüper Lig2-2
2024-04-21Gaziantep FKKasımpaşaSüper Lig2-0
2023-12-03KasımpaşaGaziantep FKSüper Lig4-2
2023-08-02KasımpaşaGaziantep FKFriendlies Clubs4-2
2023-04-02Gaziantep FKKasımpaşaSüper Lig0-3
2022-10-01KasımpaşaGaziantep FKSüper Lig1-0
2022-04-03KasımpaşaGaziantep FKSüper Lig2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.1%, draw 27.3%, away 35.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.62 3.54 2.72
Bet365 2.50 3.40 2.60
BetVictor 2.45 3.50 2.60
Betano 2.55 3.40 2.60
Betfair 2.50 3.40 2.63
Dafabet 2.60 3.45 2.70
Marathonbet 2.51 3.40 2.61
Pinnacle 2.59 3.60 2.73
SBO 2.43 3.20 2.58
William Hill 2.45 3.30 2.50
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.50 ▼ -0.29
X 3.40 ▼ -0.05
2 2.60 ▲ +0.18

14 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Kasımpaşa Predicted score 0 – 1 Low Bet Now
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