Rizespor
vs
Erzurumspor FK
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rizespor
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Rizespor is the favourite, not a value bet.
Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK
| Probability | Rizespor | Draw | Erzurumspor FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.4% | 29.3% | 35.3% |
| Market | 48.2% | 26.5% | 25.3% |
| Final | 45.0% | 27.2% | 27.8% |
| Edge | -3.2% | +0.7% | +2.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.5% per unit staked (our 45.0% × 2.01 − 1).
Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK match preview
Rizespor faces Erzurumspor FK in a Süper Lig matchup with both teams showing mixed recent form. Rizespor's last five matches resulted in two draws, three losses, and a single win, while Erzurumspor FK has secured two wins, one draw, and two losses in their recent outings. According to our model, Rizespor has a 45% probability of winning, while Erzurumspor FK stands at 28%, with a draw at 27%.
The expected goals for this match are closely aligned, with Rizespor at 1.27 and Erzurumspor FK at 1.28. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is a narrow 1-0 victory for Rizespor, with a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 53% chance that both teams will score, and a 47% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rizespor and Erzurumspor FK expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Rizespor and Erzurumspor FK attack and defence ratings
Rizespor
Erzurumspor FK
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rizespor | 45.0% | 2.22 | -3.2% | 2.01 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rizespor | 45.0% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Erzurumspor FK | 27.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% |
| No | 47.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rizespor win | 16.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 64.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-0 | 9.1% | |
| 1-0 | 8.7% |
Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK stats
Rizespor and Erzurumspor FK recent form
| Rizespor |
DLLLDW |
| Erzurumspor FK |
LWWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rizespor and Erzurumspor FK season so far
Rizespor record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Erzurumspor FK record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.2%, draw 26.5%, away 25.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.01 | 3.71 | 3.78 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.45 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 1.93 | 3.56 | 3.62 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.67 | 3.87 |
| SBO | 1.89 | 3.23 | 3.45 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .