Galatasaray
vs
Fenerbahçe
Garuda Lions Prediction: Galatasaray
2 – 1 Predicted score · 6% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Galatasaray is the favourite, not a value bet.
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe
| Probability | Galatasaray | Draw | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.8% | 21.1% | 45.1% |
| Market | 43.0% | 24.7% | 32.3% |
| Final | 40.7% | 23.8% | 35.5% |
| Edge | -2.3% | -0.9% | +3.2% |
Why Galatasaray
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.23, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.2% per unit staked (our 40.7% × 2.23 − 1).
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe match preview
Galatasaray faces Fenerbahçe in a highly anticipated Süper Lig match on October 26, 2026. According to our model, Galatasaray has a 39% chance of winning, while Fenerbahçe holds a 37% probability, with a 24% likelihood of a draw. The most probable scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Galatasaray, with a 6% chance. The model also indicates a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams scoring at 73%.
In terms of recent form, Galatasaray has experienced a mixed run with three wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Fenerbahçe has secured three wins, two draws, and one loss in the same period. Expected goals suggest Galatasaray at 1.66 and Fenerbahçe at 2.21, indicating a competitive match ahead.
Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe team news
Galatasaray news
- R. Leao — injury
Fenerbahçe news
- J. Oosterwolde — achilles tendon injury
- M. Asensio — knee injury
- M. Muldur — knee injury
- N. Ake — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.26
Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe attack and defence ratings
Galatasaray
Fenerbahçe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Galatasaray | 40.7% | 2.46 | -2.3% | 2.23 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Galatasaray | 40.7% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Fenerbahçe | 35.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.0% |
| No | 22.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Galatasaray win | 18.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.5% | |
| Loss | 66.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.3% |
| 2-2 | 7.2% | |
| 1-1 | 7.0% |
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe stats
Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe recent form
| Galatasaray |
WWLWLW |
| Fenerbahçe |
DWLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe season so far
Galatasaray record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fenerbahçe record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Galatasaray | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig | 3-0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Galatasaray | Fenerbahçe | Super Cup | 0-2 |
| 2025-12-01 | Fenerbahçe | Galatasaray | Süper Lig | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-02 | Fenerbahçe | Galatasaray | Türkiye Kupası | 1-2 |
| 2025-02-24 | Galatasaray | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-21 | Fenerbahçe | Galatasaray | Süper Lig | 1-3 |
| 2024-05-19 | Galatasaray | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig | 0-1 |
| 2024-04-07 | Galatasaray | Fenerbahçe | Super Cup | 1-0 |
| 2023-12-24 | Fenerbahçe | Galatasaray | Süper Lig | 0-0 |
| 2023-06-04 | Galatasaray | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.1%, draw 24.7%, away 32.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.23 | 3.90 | 3.06 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.70 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.75 | 2.90 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.22 | 3.80 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.14 | 3.74 | 2.94 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 3.80 | 3.05 |
| SBO | 2.06 | 3.50 | 2.78 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .