Lille
vs
Galatasaray
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lille
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Lille vs Galatasaray overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lille vs Galatasaray
| Probability | Lille | Draw | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.7% | 23.0% | 23.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.7% | 23.0% | 23.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Lille
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.43.
Lille vs Galatasaray match preview
Lille hosts Galatasaray in the UEFA Champions League with a probability of 54% for a home win, while both teams share a 23% chance of a draw or an away victory. The model suggests a most likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Lille, with an expected goals tally of 2.07 for Lille and 1.33 for Galatasaray.
Both teams have shown recent form that could influence the match outcome; Lille's last five matches show two wins, one draw, and two losses, while Galatasaray has recorded four wins and two losses. The model indicates a 66% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance that both teams will score, suggesting an engaging encounter ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lille and Galatasaray expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.40
Lille and Galatasaray attack and defence ratings
Lille
Galatasaray
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lille vs Galatasaray markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lille | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lille | 53.7% |
| Draw | 23.0% | |
| Galatasaray | 23.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.2% |
| No | 34.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lille win | 29.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 50.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.2% |
Lille vs Galatasaray stats
Lille and Galatasaray recent form
| Lille |
LWLWDW |
| Galatasaray |
WLWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.