Lille vs Brest overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lille vs Brest
| Probability | Lille | Draw | Brest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.8% | 23.4% | 42.8% |
| Market | 48.5% | 25.7% | 25.8% |
| Final | 44.8% | 25.1% | 30.1% |
| Edge | -14.7% | -2.2% | +16.9% |
Why Lille
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lille and Brest expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.37
Lille and Brest attack and defence ratings
Lille
Brest
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lille vs Brest: result vs prediction
Lille 1 – 1 Brest
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lille vs Brest markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lille | 44.8% | 2.23 | -14.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.9% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lille | 44.8% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Brest | 30.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.2% |
| No | 34.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lille win | 16.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.5% | |
| Loss | 66.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.3% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
Lille vs Brest stats
Lille and Brest recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lille and Brest going into this match
Lille record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Brest record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
Lille vs Brest head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Lille | Brest | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Brest | Lille | Ligue 1 | 3-3 |
| 2025-05-10 | Brest | Lille | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2024-12-06 | Lille | Brest | Ligue 1 | 3-1 |
| 2024-03-17 | Brest | Lille | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-22 | Lille | Brest | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2023-02-24 | Lille | Brest | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2023-01-11 | Brest | Lille | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2022-01-22 | Brest | Lille | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2021-10-23 | Lille | Brest | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lille vs Brest odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.3%, draw 25.5%, away 25.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.99 | 3.88 | 3.90 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 1.87 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.90 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 3.78 | 3.80 |
| Pinnacle | 2.01 | 3.74 | 3.79 |
| SBO | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
30 snapshots recorded, from .