Liverpool
vs
Brighton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Liverpool
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Liverpool is the favourite, not a value bet.
Liverpool vs Brighton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Liverpool vs Brighton
| Probability | Liverpool | Draw | Brighton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.0% | 23.1% | 40.9% |
| Market | 45.6% | 24.6% | 29.8% |
| Final | 43.2% | 24.2% | 32.6% |
| Edge | -2.4% | -0.4% | +2.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.16, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.7% per unit staked (our 43.2% × 2.16 − 1).
Liverpool vs Brighton match preview
Liverpool faces Brighton in an intriguing Premier League matchup on October 25, 2026. According to our model, Liverpool has a 44% chance of winning, while Brighton holds a 32% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Liverpool, with an expected goals tally of 1.88 for Liverpool and 2.08 for Brighton. Both teams are expected to score, with a 76% probability, and there is a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 77%.
In terms of recent form, Liverpool has recorded two wins, one loss, one draw, and two wins in their last six matches. Conversely, Brighton has been in excellent form, winning all six of their most recent games. Historically, in their last seven encounters, Liverpool has secured four victories, while Brighton has won twice and one match ended in a draw.
Liverpool and Brighton team news
Liverpool news
- A. Nallo — leg injury
- C. Bradley — knee injury
- D. Szoboszlai — muscle injury
- G. Leoni — knee injury
- H. Ekitike — achilles tendon injury
- J. Frimpong — muscle injury
- V. Munoz — knee injury
Brighton news
- E. Ferguson — ankle injury
- F. Azeez — abdominal strain
- K. Mitoma — hamstring injury
- M. Wieffer — knee injury
- P. Struijk — rest
- S. Tzimas — knee injury
- Y. Minteh — injury
- Z. Yohanna — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Liverpool and Brighton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.85
Liverpool and Brighton attack and defence ratings
Liverpool
Brighton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Liverpool vs Brighton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool | 43.2% | 2.31 | -2.4% | 2.16 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool | 43.2% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Brighton | 32.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.1% |
| No | 24.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Liverpool win | 19.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.3% | |
| Loss | 64.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.7% |
| 1-2 | 7.7% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Liverpool vs Brighton stats
Liverpool and Brighton recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Liverpool and Brighton season so far
Liverpool record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Brighton record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game on the road against 2.7 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Liverpool vs Brighton head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Brighton | Liverpool | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Liverpool | Brighton | England FA Cup | 3-0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Liverpool | Brighton | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-19 | Brighton | Liverpool | Premier League | 3-2 |
| 2024-11-02 | Liverpool | Brighton | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-03-31 | Liverpool | Brighton | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2023-10-08 | Brighton | Liverpool | Premier League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Liverpool vs Brighton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.3%, draw 25.0%, away 29.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.16 | 4.03 | 3.29 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.90 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.15 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.10 | 3.92 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.11 | 4.03 | 3.21 |
| SBO | 2.11 | 3.32 | 2.81 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| sport888 | 1.85 | 3.70 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .