Aston Villa
vs
Manchester City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Manchester City
1 – 2 Predicted score · 6% model probability
Aston Villa vs Manchester City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aston Villa vs Manchester City
| Probability | Aston Villa | Draw | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.8% | 21.5% | 35.7% |
| Market | 21.2% | 23.3% | 55.4% |
| Final | 26.6% | 22.9% | 50.5% |
| Edge | +21.5% | -1.8% | -19.7% |
Why Manchester City
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City match preview
Aston Villa faces Manchester City in a Premier League clash on October 24, 2026. According to our model, Aston Villa has a 27% chance of winning, while Manchester City is favored at 51%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Manchester City, with an expected goals tally of 2.17 for Aston Villa and 2.09 for Manchester City.
Recent form shows Aston Villa with three wins, a draw, and two losses in their last six matches, while Manchester City has been in strong form with five consecutive wins and one loss. Historically, Aston Villa has had the upper hand in their last six encounters, securing four wins compared to Manchester City's two. The probabilities indicate a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 81% and both teams scoring at 79%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aston Villa and Manchester City expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.25
Aston Villa and Manchester City attack and defence ratings
Aston Villa
Manchester City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aston Villa vs Manchester City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester City | 50.5% | 1.98 | -19.7% | 1.76 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.0% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.3% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aston Villa | 26.6% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Manchester City | 50.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.5% |
| No | 20.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester City win | 20.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.6% | |
| Loss | 64.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 7.2% |
| 1-1 | 7.0% | |
| 2-1 | 6.9% |
Aston Villa vs Manchester City stats
Aston Villa and Manchester City recent form
| Aston Villa |
WDWWLW |
| Manchester City |
WLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aston Villa and Manchester City season so far
Aston Villa record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Manchester City record
- They have won 6 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Manchester City | Aston Villa | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Aston Villa | Manchester City | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-22 | Manchester City | Aston Villa | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-21 | Aston Villa | Manchester City | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-03 | Manchester City | Aston Villa | Premier League | 4-1 |
| 2023-12-06 | Aston Villa | Manchester City | Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.2%, draw 23.4%, away 55.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.72 | 4.26 | 1.76 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 3.80 | 1.70 |
| BetVictor | 4.40 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| Betano | 5.00 | 4.05 | 1.65 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 4.20 | 1.60 |
| Marathonbet | 4.60 | 4.15 | 1.71 |
| Pinnacle | 4.37 | 4.10 | 1.72 |
| SBO | 4.27 | 3.81 | 1.58 |
| William Hill | 4.33 | 3.90 | 1.70 |
| winamax_de | 4.10 | 3.90 | 1.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .