Chelsea
vs
Manchester United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chelsea
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.52.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Chelsea is the favourite, not a value bet.
Chelsea vs Manchester United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chelsea vs Manchester United
| Probability | Chelsea | Draw | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.2% | 20.9% | 21.8% |
| Market | 51.9% | 24.4% | 23.7% |
| Final | 53.2% | 23.5% | 23.2% |
| Edge | +1.3% | -0.9% | -0.5% |
Why Chelsea
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.52.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.1% per unit staked (our 53.2% × 1.90 − 1).
Chelsea vs Manchester United match preview
Chelsea hosts Manchester United in a Premier League clash on October 31, 2026. Chelsea has a 52% probability of winning, while Manchester United stands at 24%, with a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Chelsea, occurring with an 8% likelihood. Chelsea's expected goals are 2.40, compared to Manchester United's 1.63, indicating a strong offensive performance anticipated from the home side.
In terms of recent form, Chelsea has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Manchester United has struggled, with six games yielding one draw and five losses. Historically, in their last six encounters, Chelsea has secured two wins, while Manchester United has three victories and one draw. The confidence grade for this match is A, suggesting a strong belief in the predictive accuracy of the model.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chelsea and Manchester United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.86
Chelsea and Manchester United attack and defence ratings
Chelsea
Manchester United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chelsea vs Manchester United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chelsea | 53.2% | 1.88 | +1.3% | 1.90 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.8% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chelsea | 53.2% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Manchester United | 23.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.4% |
| No | 27.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chelsea win | 37.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 42.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.6% |
| 1-1 | 8.0% | |
| 3-1 | 7.1% |
Chelsea vs Manchester United stats
Chelsea and Manchester United recent form
| Chelsea |
LWWLDW |
| Manchester United |
LLDLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chelsea and Manchester United season so far
Chelsea record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Manchester United record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 75% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chelsea vs Manchester United head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Chelsea | Manchester United | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Manchester United | Chelsea | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-16 | Chelsea | Manchester United | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-03 | Manchester United | Chelsea | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-04 | Chelsea | Manchester United | Premier League | 4-3 |
| 2023-12-06 | Manchester United | Chelsea | Premier League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chelsea vs Manchester United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.9%, draw 24.4%, away 23.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 4.06 | 4.11 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.90 | 4.05 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.83 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.85 | 3.95 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.86 | 4.00 | 4.04 |
| SBO | 1.84 | 3.47 | 3.40 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
17 snapshots recorded, from .