Sunderland
vs
Chelsea
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chelsea
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.31.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Chelsea is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sunderland vs Chelsea overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sunderland vs Chelsea
| Probability | Sunderland | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.0% | 24.5% | 30.5% |
| Market | 27.0% | 26.6% | 46.4% |
| Final | 31.5% | 26.1% | 42.4% |
| Edge | +4.5% | -0.5% | -4.0% |
Why Chelsea
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.31.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.1% per unit staked (our 42.4% × 2.00 − 1).
Sunderland vs Chelsea match preview
Sunderland faces Chelsea in a Premier League matchup with Sunderland having a 31% probability of winning, while Chelsea stands at 42%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, with a 7% chance of occurring. Sunderland's expected goals are 1.86, compared to Chelsea's 1.59.
Recent form shows Sunderland with two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Chelsea has three wins and three losses in the same period. The model indicates a 69% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance that both teams will score. In their last two encounters, Sunderland has won both matches against Chelsea, contributing to a confidence grade of A for this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sunderland and Chelsea expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
Sunderland and Chelsea attack and defence ratings
Sunderland
Chelsea
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Leeds v Tottenham — match page
- Fulham v Newcastle United — match page
- Arsenal vs Hull City — team news & stats
- Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City — team news & stats
- Brighton v Brentford — match page
- Crystal Palace vs Liverpool — team news & stats
- Ipswich vs Bournemouth
- Manchester United vs Aston Villa
Before and after this match
Sunderland vs Chelsea markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chelsea | 42.4% | 2.36 | -4.0% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.7% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.7% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sunderland | 31.5% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Chelsea | 42.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.7% |
| No | 30.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chelsea win | 24.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 56.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.2% |
Sunderland vs Chelsea stats
Sunderland and Chelsea recent form
| Sunderland |
LLWDDL |
| Chelsea |
WDLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sunderland and Chelsea season so far
Sunderland record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Chelsea record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Sunderland vs Chelsea head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Sunderland | Chelsea | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Chelsea | Sunderland | Premier League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sunderland vs Chelsea odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.9%, draw 26.3%, away 48.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.90 | 3.88 | 1.99 |
| Bet365 | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.80 | 3.60 | 1.87 |
| Betano | 3.70 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.85 | 3.70 | 1.96 |
| Marathonbet | 3.80 | 3.78 | 1.94 |
| Pinnacle | 3.88 | 3.87 | 1.94 |
| SBO | 3.34 | 3.18 | 1.94 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| sport888 | 3.80 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .