Leeds
vs
Tottenham
Garuda Lions Prediction: Leeds
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Leeds is the favourite, not a value bet.
Leeds vs Tottenham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leeds vs Tottenham
| Probability | Leeds | Draw | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.1% | 26.1% | 40.8% |
| Market | 37.7% | 28.1% | 34.2% |
| Final | 36.5% | 27.6% | 35.9% |
| Edge | -1.1% | -0.5% | +1.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.83, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.4% per unit staked (our 36.5% × 2.83 − 1).
Leeds vs Tottenham match preview
Leeds will host Tottenham in a Premier League clash with both teams showing mixed recent form. Leeds has drawn their last two matches and won one of their last six, while Tottenham has two wins in their last six outings. According to our model, Leeds has a 38% chance of winning, with a predicted scoreline of 2-1 being the most likely outcome at 9%.
The expected goals for Leeds stand at 1.61 compared to Tottenham's 1.51, suggesting a closely contested match. Additionally, there is a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance that both teams will score. Historically, Leeds has not fared well against Tottenham, with no wins and one draw in their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leeds and Tottenham expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.21
Leeds and Tottenham attack and defence ratings
Leeds
Tottenham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leeds vs Tottenham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leeds | 36.5% | 2.74 | -1.1% | 2.83 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leeds | 36.5% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Tottenham | 35.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.2% |
| No | 33.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leeds win | 16.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.5% | |
| Loss | 67.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 7.8% |
Leeds vs Tottenham stats
Leeds and Tottenham recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leeds and Tottenham season so far
Leeds record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Tottenham record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Leeds vs Tottenham head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Tottenham | Leeds | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Leeds | Tottenham | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2023-05-28 | Leeds | Tottenham | Premier League | 1-4 |
| 2022-11-12 | Tottenham | Leeds | Premier League | 4-3 |
| 2022-02-26 | Leeds | Tottenham | Premier League | 0-4 |
| 2021-11-21 | Tottenham | Leeds | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2021-05-08 | Leeds | Tottenham | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2021-01-02 | Tottenham | Leeds | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2013-01-27 | Leeds | Tottenham | FA Cup | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Leeds vs Tottenham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.1%, draw 28.3%, away 36.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.78 | 3.57 | 2.66 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.71 | 3.48 | 2.59 |
| Pinnacle | 2.83 | 3.40 | 2.61 |
| SBO | 2.57 | 3.08 | 2.39 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| winamax_fr | 2.15 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .