Crystal Palace
vs
Liverpool
Garuda Lions Prediction: Liverpool
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.53.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Liverpool is the favourite, not a value bet.
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
| Probability | Crystal Palace | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.3% | 23.7% | 49.1% |
| Market | 19.7% | 22.4% | 57.8% |
| Final | 21.6% | 22.7% | 55.6% |
| Edge | +1.9% | +0.3% | -2.2% |
Why Liverpool
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.53.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.9% per unit staked (our 55.6% × 1.71 − 1).
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool match preview
Crystal Palace faces Liverpool in an intriguing Premier League matchup, with the probabilities indicating a 22% chance of a Palace win, a 23% likelihood of a draw, and a 56% chance for Liverpool to secure victory. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.47 for Crystal Palace and 2.09 for Liverpool. Both teams are projected to score, with a 70% probability for both teams to find the net and for the match to see over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Crystal Palace has struggled with a record of L-W-L-D-L-L, while Liverpool has shown stronger performance with D-W-W-W-W-L. The head-to-head record over the last seven encounters is evenly matched, with both teams securing three wins each and one draw. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Crystal Palace and Liverpool expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.39
Crystal Palace and Liverpool attack and defence ratings
Crystal Palace
Liverpool
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool | 55.6% | 1.80 | -2.2% | 1.71 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crystal Palace | 21.6% |
| Draw | 22.7% | |
| Liverpool | 55.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.1% |
| No | 29.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Liverpool win | 24.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 57.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool stats
Crystal Palace and Liverpool recent form
| Crystal Palace |
DLWLDL |
| Liverpool |
LLDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Crystal Palace and Liverpool season so far
Crystal Palace record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Liverpool record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Liverpool | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Liverpool | Crystal Palace | League Cup | 0-3 |
| 2025-09-27 | Crystal Palace | Liverpool | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-25 | Liverpool | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-10-05 | Crystal Palace | Liverpool | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2024-04-14 | Liverpool | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2023-12-09 | Crystal Palace | Liverpool | Premier League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 17.6%, draw 21.9%, away 60.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.44 | 4.62 | 1.62 |
| Bet365 | 5.50 | 4.33 | 1.57 |
| BetVictor | 5.25 | 4.33 | 1.53 |
| Betano | 5.40 | 4.30 | 1.57 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 4.33 | 1.57 |
| Dafabet | 5.40 | 4.50 | 1.58 |
| Marathonbet | 5.30 | 4.50 | 1.58 |
| Pinnacle | 5.82 | 4.49 | 1.56 |
| SBO | 4.68 | 3.90 | 1.53 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.57 |
| onexbet | 4.78 | 4.51 | 1.71 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .