Arsenal
vs
Hull City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Arsenal
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.66.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Arsenal is the favourite, not a value bet.
Arsenal vs Hull City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arsenal vs Hull City
| Probability | Arsenal | Draw | Hull City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.8% | 22.1% | 10.2% |
| Market | 81.9% | 12.6% | 5.5% |
| Final | 78.3% | 15.0% | 6.7% |
| Edge | -3.5% | +2.4% | +1.2% |
Why Arsenal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.21, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.2% per unit staked (our 78.3% × 1.21 − 1).
Arsenal vs Hull City match preview
Arsenal enters the match against Hull City with a strong probability of winning at 77%, while Hull City has a mere 7% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with a probability of 13%. Arsenal's expected goals stand at 1.94, significantly higher than Hull City's 0.73, reflecting a clear disparity in offensive capabilities.
In terms of recent form, Arsenal has shown consistency with a record of D-W-D-W-W-W, while Hull City has struggled, recording D-L-D-L-D-L. The model indicates a 52% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance that both teams will score, suggesting a potentially one-sided encounter. The confidence grade for this prediction is B, indicating a moderate level of certainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arsenal and Hull City expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.58
Arsenal and Hull City attack and defence ratings
Arsenal
Hull City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arsenal vs Hull City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 78.3% | 1.28 | -3.5% | 1.21 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.3% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win | 44.1% | 2.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 78.3% |
| Draw | 15.0% | |
| Hull City | 6.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.3% |
| No | 54.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 21.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win | 44.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 31.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.4% |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | |
| 1-1 | 10.5% |
Arsenal vs Hull City stats
Arsenal and Hull City recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arsenal and Hull City season so far
Arsenal record
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hull City record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Arsenal vs Hull City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-02-11 | Arsenal | Hull City | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2016-09-17 | Hull City | Arsenal | Premier League | 1-4 |
| 2016-03-08 | Hull City | Arsenal | FA Cup | 0-4 |
| 2016-02-20 | Arsenal | Hull City | FA Cup | 0-0 |
| 2015-05-04 | Hull City | Arsenal | Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2015-01-04 | Arsenal | Hull City | FA Cup | 2-0 |
| 2014-10-18 | Arsenal | Hull City | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2014-05-17 | Arsenal | Hull City | FA Cup | 3-2 |
| 2014-04-20 | Hull City | Arsenal | Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2013-12-04 | Arsenal | Hull City | Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arsenal vs Hull City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 82.0%, draw 12.4%, away 5.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.20 | 7.95 | 18.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.17 | 7.50 | 15.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.14 | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| Betano | 1.18 | 7.00 | 16.50 |
| Betfair | 1.15 | 8.50 | 18.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.17 | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.18 | 7.80 | 18.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.16 | 8.29 | 17.93 |
| SBO | 1.13 | 6.47 | 12.04 |
| William Hill | 1.17 | 7.50 | 15.00 |
| onexbet | 1.21 | 7.75 | 16.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .