Fulham
vs
Newcastle United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fulham
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.05.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 51%.
Fulham vs Newcastle United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fulham vs Newcastle United
| Probability | Fulham | Draw | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.0% | 21.2% | 16.8% |
| Market | 44.2% | 26.1% | 29.7% |
| Final | 48.6% | 24.9% | 26.5% |
| Edge | +4.5% | -1.2% | -3.2% |
Why Fulham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.05.
- The market prices Fulham below our published probability: +4.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.36, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +14.8% per unit staked (our 48.6% × 2.36 − 1).
Fulham vs Newcastle United match preview
Fulham hosts Newcastle United in a Premier League clash with Fulham holding a 46% probability of winning, compared to Newcastle's 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 2.04 for Fulham and 1.16 for Newcastle. Additionally, there is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score in 62% of the scenarios.
In terms of recent form, Fulham has recorded a mixed bag of results with one loss, two wins, one draw, and another win in their last five matches. Newcastle, on the other hand, has struggled with three losses and only two wins in their recent outings. The historical head-to-head shows Fulham with three victories and Newcastle with four in their last seven encounters, indicating a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fulham and Newcastle United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.19
Fulham and Newcastle United attack and defence ratings
Fulham
Newcastle United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fulham vs Newcastle United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fulham | 48.6% | 2.06 | +4.5% | 2.36 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Fulham win | 41.4% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fulham | 48.6% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Newcastle United | 26.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.1% |
| No | 35.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fulham win | 41.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 37.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-1 | 9.3% | |
| 2-0 | 8.0% |
Fulham vs Newcastle United stats
Fulham and Newcastle United recent form
| Fulham |
DLWWLD |
| Newcastle United |
LLWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fulham and Newcastle United season so far
Fulham record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Newcastle United record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fulham vs Newcastle United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Fulham | Newcastle United | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Newcastle United | Fulham | League Cup | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Newcastle United | Fulham | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-01 | Newcastle United | Fulham | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-21 | Fulham | Newcastle United | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2024-04-06 | Fulham | Newcastle United | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2024-01-27 | Fulham | Newcastle United | FA Cup | 0-2 |
| 2023-12-16 | Newcastle United | Fulham | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2023-01-15 | Newcastle United | Fulham | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2022-10-01 | Fulham | Newcastle United | Premier League | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fulham vs Newcastle United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.5%, draw 25.6%, away 27.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.09 | 3.90 | 3.58 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.03 | 3.80 | 3.48 |
| Pinnacle | 2.04 | 3.75 | 3.64 |
| SBO | 2.04 | 3.28 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| onexbet | 2.36 | 3.82 | 3.02 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .