Newcastle United
vs
Everton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Newcastle United
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Newcastle United is the favourite, not a value bet.
Newcastle United vs Everton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Newcastle United vs Everton
| Probability | Newcastle United | Draw | Everton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.3% | 25.2% | 43.5% |
| Market | 41.1% | 26.7% | 32.1% |
| Final | 38.7% | 26.3% | 35.0% |
| Edge | -2.5% | -0.4% | +2.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.4% per unit staked (our 38.7% × 2.37 − 1).
Newcastle United vs Everton match preview
Newcastle United hosts Everton in a Premier League clash with both teams showing mixed recent form. Newcastle has recorded three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Everton has two wins, two losses, and two draws in the same period. According to our model, Newcastle has a 41% probability of winning, with a predicted scoreline of 2-1 being the most likely outcome at 9%.
The expected goals are closely matched, with Newcastle at 1.57 and Everton at 1.55. There is a 62% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score with a 65% probability. In their last ten encounters, Newcastle has won three times, Everton five times, and there have been two draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Newcastle United and Everton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.34
Newcastle United and Everton attack and defence ratings
Newcastle United
Everton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Newcastle United vs Everton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newcastle United | 38.7% | 2.59 | -2.5% | 2.37 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.7% | 1.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newcastle United | 38.7% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Everton | 35.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.0% |
| No | 32.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Newcastle United win | 15.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.7% | |
| Loss | 68.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
Newcastle United vs Everton stats
Newcastle United and Everton recent form
| Newcastle United |
LWLLWL |
| Everton |
WLLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Newcastle United and Everton season so far
Newcastle United record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Everton record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Newcastle United vs Everton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Everton | Newcastle United | League Cup | 3-1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Newcastle United | Everton | Friendlies Clubs | 1-3 |
| 2026-02-28 | Newcastle United | Everton | Premier League | 2-3 |
| 2025-11-29 | Everton | Newcastle United | Premier League | 1-4 |
| 2025-05-25 | Newcastle United | Everton | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-05 | Everton | Newcastle United | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2024-04-02 | Newcastle United | Everton | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2023-12-07 | Everton | Newcastle United | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2023-04-27 | Everton | Newcastle United | Premier League | 1-4 |
| 2022-10-19 | Newcastle United | Everton | Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Newcastle United vs Everton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.3%, draw 26.4%, away 32.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.75 | 3.05 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.60 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.35 | 3.60 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.31 | 3.65 | 2.97 |
| Pinnacle | 2.36 | 3.61 | 3.00 |
| SBO | 2.23 | 3.20 | 2.72 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| onexbet | 2.26 | 3.78 | 3.23 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
21 snapshots recorded, from .