Sunderland
vs
Brentford
3 – 2 Full time
| 26′ | Chemsdine Talbi | ||
| 29′ | Timur Tutierov | ||
| 39′ | Malick Fofana | ||
| 42′ | Callum Wilson | ||
| 45′ | Habib DiarraChris Rigg | ||
| 59′ | Callum WilsonDango Ouattara | ||
| 59′ | Michael KayodeAaron Hickey | ||
| 59′ | Mamadou SangareMathias Jensen | ||
| 60′ | Timur TutierovThomas Meunier | ||
| 60′ | Omar AldereteLuke O'Nien | ||
| 71′ | Jaidon AnthonyKevin Schade | ||
| 71′ | Nathan CollinsKristoffer Ajer | ||
| 74′ | Kevin Schade | ||
| 80′ | Chemsdine TalbiTom Proctor | ||
| 83′ | Vitaly Janelt | ||
| 85′ | Jannik Schuster | ||
| 89′ | Chris Rigg | ||
| 90′ | Igor Thiago | ||
| 90′ | Djiamgone Jocelin Ta BiF. Scott |
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 33 | Possession % | 67 |
| 0 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 4 | Saves | 0 |
| 198 | Accurate passes | 491 |
Sunderland vs Brentford overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sunderland vs Brentford
| Probability | Sunderland | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.3% | 24.2% | 45.5% |
| Market | 26.5% | 26.3% | 47.2% |
| Final | 27.5% | 25.8% | 46.7% |
| Edge | +0.9% | -0.5% | -0.4% |
Why Brentford
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.51.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sunderland and Brentford expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.39
Sunderland and Brentford attack and defence ratings
Sunderland
Brentford
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sunderland vs Brentford: result vs prediction
Sunderland 3 – 2 Brentford
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sunderland vs Brentford markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brentford | 46.7% | 2.14 | -0.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sunderland | 27.5% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Brentford | 46.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.1% |
| No | 32.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Brentford win | 25.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 54.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.2% |
Sunderland vs Brentford stats
Sunderland and Brentford recent form
| Sunderland |
DDLWLL |
| Brentford |
DLDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sunderland vs Brentford head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Brentford | Sunderland | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-07 | Brentford | Sunderland | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Sunderland | Brentford | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2018-02-17 | Sunderland | Brentford | Championship | 0-2 |
| 2017-10-21 | Brentford | Sunderland | Championship | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sunderland vs Brentford odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.5%, draw 26.3%, away 47.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.66 | 3.62 | 2.04 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.60 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.55 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.50 | 3.65 | 2.08 |
| Marathonbet | 3.68 | 3.62 | 2.02 |
| Pinnacle | 3.78 | 3.64 | 2.02 |
| SBO | 3.34 | 3.32 | 1.97 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.30 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
82 snapshots recorded, from .