Darmstadt
vs
1. FC Magdeburg
Garuda Lions Prediction: 1. FC Magdeburg
0 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 0.97.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Darmstadt vs 1. FC Magdeburg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Darmstadt vs 1. FC Magdeburg
| Probability | Darmstadt | Draw | 1. FC Magdeburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13.7% | 20.3% | 66.0% |
| Market | 34.6% | 25.1% | 40.3% |
| Final | 29.4% | 23.9% | 46.7% |
| Edge | -5.2% | -1.2% | +6.4% |
Why 1. FC Magdeburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices 1. FC Magdeburg below our published probability: +6.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +10.7% per unit staked (our 46.7% × 2.37 − 1).
Darmstadt vs 1. FC Magdeburg match preview
Darmstadt faces 1. FC Magdeburg in a 2. Bundesliga clash, with the model suggesting a significant advantage for the visitors. Darmstadt's probability of winning stands at 14%, while 1. FC Magdeburg has a strong 66% likelihood of securing victory. The expected goals for Darmstadt are 0.96, compared to 2.28 for Magdeburg, indicating a potential dominance in offensive play.
Recent form reveals Darmstadt's struggle, with a record of D-L-W-L-W-L, while 1. FC Magdeburg has shown more resilience with W-L-W-D-W-L. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-2, occurring at a rate of 10%. Additionally, there is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% probability that both teams will score in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Darmstadt and 1. FC Magdeburg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
Darmstadt and 1. FC Magdeburg attack and defence ratings
Darmstadt
1. FC Magdeburg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig
- Energie Cottbus vs Bochum
- Wolfsburg v VfL Osnabrück — match page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern v Hertha BSC — match page
- Karlsruher SC vs FC Heidenheim — team news & stats
- Hannover 96 vs Dynamo Dresden — team news & stats
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel
- St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Darmstadt vs 1. FC Magdeburg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 46.7% | 2.14 | +6.4% | 2.37 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | 1. FC Magdeburg win | 43.8% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Darmstadt | 29.4% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| 1. FC Magdeburg | 46.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% |
| No | 43.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | 1. FC Magdeburg win | 43.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 34.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 10.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 1-1 | 9.5% |
Darmstadt vs 1. FC Magdeburg stats
Darmstadt and 1. FC Magdeburg recent form
| Darmstadt |
DLWLWL |
| 1. FC Magdeburg |
WLWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Darmstadt and 1. FC Magdeburg season so far
Darmstadt record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
1. FC Magdeburg record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Darmstadt vs 1. FC Magdeburg head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | 1. FC Magdeburg | Darmstadt | 2. Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Darmstadt | 1. FC Magdeburg | 2. Bundesliga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Darmstadt vs 1. FC Magdeburg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.6%, draw 25.1%, away 40.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.66 | 3.72 | 2.32 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.75 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.75 | 3.80 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.70 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.70 | 2.34 |
| Marathonbet | 2.66 | 3.72 | 2.32 |
| Pinnacle | 2.84 | 3.75 | 2.33 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .