1. FC Nürnberg
vs
Darmstadt
Garuda Lions Prediction: 1. FC Nürnberg
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 1.14.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
1. FC Nürnberg vs Darmstadt overview
Garuda Lions analysis: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Darmstadt
| Probability | 1. FC Nürnberg | Draw | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.6% | 20.2% | 16.2% |
| Market | 55.0% | 22.3% | 22.6% |
| Final | 57.2% | 21.8% | 21.0% |
| Edge | +2.1% | -0.5% | -1.6% |
Why 1. FC Nürnberg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 1.14.
- The market prices 1. FC Nürnberg below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.1% per unit staked (our 57.2% × 1.75 − 1).
1. FC Nürnberg vs Darmstadt match preview
1. FC Nürnberg faces Darmstadt in the 2. Bundesliga with a probability of 60% for a home victory, while a draw stands at 22% and an away win for Darmstadt is at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg is 2.22, compared to 1.17 for Darmstadt.
In terms of recent form, 1. FC Nürnberg has recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches, while Darmstadt has managed two wins, two draws, and a loss as well. Notably, in their last two head-to-head encounters, 1. FC Nürnberg has not secured any wins, with Darmstadt winning both matches. The probabilities suggest a competitive match, with a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1. FC Nürnberg and Darmstadt expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.50
1. FC Nürnberg and Darmstadt attack and defence ratings
1. FC Nürnberg
Darmstadt
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs Energie Cottbus — team news & stats
- Holstein Kiel v Arminia Bielefeld — match page
- VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
- Hertha BSC v Wolfsburg — match page
- Bochum vs Karlsruher SC
- 1. FC Magdeburg v St. Pauli — match page
- FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96 — team news & stats
Before and after this match
1. FC Nürnberg vs Darmstadt markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 57.2% | 1.75 | +2.1% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | 1. FC Nürnberg win | 42.2% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 57.2% |
| Draw | 21.8% | |
| Darmstadt | 21.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.4% |
| No | 37.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | 1. FC Nürnberg win | 42.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 36.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 9.0% | |
| 2-0 | 8.4% |
1. FC Nürnberg vs Darmstadt stats
1. FC Nürnberg and Darmstadt recent form
| 1. FC Nürnberg |
WLLDDW |
| Darmstadt |
DWDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
1. FC Nürnberg and Darmstadt season so far
1. FC Nürnberg record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Darmstadt record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
1. FC Nürnberg vs Darmstadt head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | Darmstadt | 1. FC Nürnberg | 2. Bundesliga | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-08 | 1. FC Nürnberg | Darmstadt | 2. Bundesliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-01-31 | 1. FC Nürnberg | Darmstadt | 2. Bundesliga | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-25 | Darmstadt | 1. FC Nürnberg | 2. Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2023-03-31 | 1. FC Nürnberg | Darmstadt | 2. Bundesliga | 0-1 |
| 2022-09-17 | Darmstadt | 1. FC Nürnberg | 2. Bundesliga | 2-0 |
| 2022-04-09 | 1. FC Nürnberg | Darmstadt | 2. Bundesliga | 3-1 |
| 2021-10-29 | Darmstadt | 1. FC Nürnberg | 2. Bundesliga | 2-0 |
| 2021-02-06 | Darmstadt | 1. FC Nürnberg | 2. Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2020-10-05 | 1. FC Nürnberg | Darmstadt | 2. Bundesliga | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
1. FC Nürnberg vs Darmstadt odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.0%, draw 22.3%, away 22.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 4.20 | 4.16 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 4.15 | 4.15 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.74 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.73 | 4.41 | 4.10 |
| SBO | 1.63 | 3.71 | 3.78 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .