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2. Bundesliga · ·Matchday 11

Hertha BSC vs Wolfsburg

Garuda Lions Prediction: Hertha BSC

2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.26.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on Hertha BSC

Olympiastadion, BerlinReferee: Matthias Jollenbeck

Hertha BSC 48%
Draw 24%
Wolfsburg 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Hertha BSC wins
48%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
96%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
65%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
10% of simulated outcomes

Hertha BSC vs Wolfsburg overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Hertha BSC vs Wolfsburg

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHertha BSCDrawWolfsburg
Model58.3%21.7%20.0%
Market44.4%24.3%31.4%
Final47.8%23.6%28.5%
Edge+3.5%-0.6%-2.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Hertha BSC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.26.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Hertha BSC below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.3% per unit staked (our 47.8% × 2.18 − 1).

Hertha BSC vs Wolfsburg match preview

Hertha BSC faces Wolfsburg in the 2. Bundesliga with a projected probability of winning at 47%, while Wolfsburg stands at 29% and a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Hertha BSC, occurring with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for Hertha BSC are 2.22, compared to Wolfsburg's 1.26, indicating a stronger offensive performance anticipated from the home side.

Both teams are showing competitive recent form, with Hertha BSC winning four of their last six matches and Wolfsburg winning three out of their last six. Our model suggests a high chance of over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 65%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting moderate certainty in the predictions.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Hertha BSC ↓ / Wolfsburg → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 9% 5% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 7% 4+ 5% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Hertha BSC and Wolfsburg expected goals

Hertha BSC 2.22
Wolfsburg 1.26

Total expected goals: 3.48

Hertha BSC and Wolfsburg attack and defence ratings

Hertha BSC

Attack 1.26 +26%
Defence 0.67 -33%

Wolfsburg

Attack 1.47 +47%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Hertha BSC vs Wolfsburg markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Hertha BSC 47.8% 2.09 +3.5% 2.18
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.5% 1.48 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.7% 1.55 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.4% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.7% 2.40 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Hertha BSC47.8%
Draw23.6%
Wolfsburg28.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.5%
Under 2.532.5%
Both teams to scoreYes64.7%
No35.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.5%
12 (either side)76.4%
X2 (draw or away)52.2%
Handicap -1Hertha BSC win37.1%
Push (exactly one goal)21.2%
Loss41.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.6%
1-19.5%
2-07.6%
Compare prices for this pick

Hertha BSC vs Wolfsburg stats

Hertha BSC and Wolfsburg recent form

newest first
Hertha BSC WWWDWW
Wolfsburg WLDWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Hertha BSC and Wolfsburg season so far

league record

Hertha BSC record

  • They have won 9 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Wolfsburg record

  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Hertha BSC vs Wolfsburg head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Hertha BSC wins 2Draws 5Wolfsburg wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-10-08WolfsburgHertha BSCFriendlies Clubs0-2
2023-05-27WolfsburgHertha BSCBundesliga1-2
2023-01-24Hertha BSCWolfsburgBundesliga0-5
2022-01-15WolfsburgHertha BSCBundesliga0-0
2021-08-21Hertha BSCWolfsburgBundesliga1-2
2021-02-27WolfsburgHertha BSCBundesliga2-0
2020-11-01Hertha BSCWolfsburgBundesliga1-1
2020-01-25WolfsburgHertha BSCBundesliga1-2
2019-08-25Hertha BSCWolfsburgBundesliga0-3
2019-02-02Hertha BSCWolfsburgBundesliga0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Hertha BSC vs Wolfsburg odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 44.4%, draw 24.3%, away 31.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.13 3.84 2.95
Bet365 2.05 3.75 3.00
BetVictor 2.05 3.90 2.88
Betano 2.18 3.90 3.00
Betfair 2.10 4.00 3.00
Dafabet 2.18 3.90 3.00
Marathonbet 2.11 3.84 2.94
Pinnacle 2.17 3.86 3.08
SBO 2.08 3.43 2.65
William Hill 2.10 3.60 2.90
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.10 ▼ -0.04
X 3.85 ▼ -0.07
2 2.98 ▲ +0.11

12 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Hertha BSC Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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