Wolfsburg
vs
VfL Osnabrück
Garuda Lions Prediction: Wolfsburg
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.50.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Wolfsburg is the favourite, not a value bet.
Wolfsburg vs VfL Osnabrück overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Wolfsburg vs VfL Osnabrück
| Probability | Wolfsburg | Draw | VfL Osnabrück |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.1% | 18.7% | 19.2% |
| Market | 62.4% | 19.7% | 17.8% |
| Final | 62.4% | 19.5% | 18.2% |
| Edge | -0.1% | -0.3% | +0.3% |
Why Wolfsburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.50.
Best available price on the pick: 1.51, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.8% per unit staked (our 62.4% × 1.51 − 1).
Wolfsburg vs VfL Osnabrück match preview
Wolfsburg enters the match against VfL Osnabrück with a strong probability of winning at 68%, while Osnabrück has a lower chance of 15%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring with an 8% likelihood. Wolfsburg's expected goals stand at 2.89, significantly higher than Osnabrück's 1.36, indicating a potential advantage in offensive performance.
In terms of recent form, Wolfsburg has recorded a mixed set of results with two draws, two wins, and a loss in their last six matches. Conversely, VfL Osnabrück has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings, alongside three losses and two draws. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 80% and a 71% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Wolfsburg and VfL Osnabrück expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.18
Wolfsburg and VfL Osnabrück attack and defence ratings
Wolfsburg
VfL Osnabrück
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig
- Energie Cottbus vs Bochum
- Darmstadt v 1. FC Magdeburg — match page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern v Hertha BSC — match page
- Karlsruher SC vs FC Heidenheim — team news & stats
- Hannover 96 vs Dynamo Dresden — team news & stats
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel
- St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Wolfsburg vs VfL Osnabrück markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wolfsburg | 62.4% | 1.60 | -0.1% | 1.51 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.7% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Wolfsburg win | 42.6% | 2.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wolfsburg | 62.4% |
| Draw | 19.5% | |
| VfL Osnabrück | 18.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.9% |
| No | 27.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Wolfsburg win | 42.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 37.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.2% |
| 3-1 | 7.4% | |
| 1-1 | 6.8% |
Wolfsburg vs VfL Osnabrück stats
Wolfsburg and VfL Osnabrück recent form
| Wolfsburg |
DWDWLD |
| VfL Osnabrück |
WLDDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Wolfsburg and VfL Osnabrück season so far
Wolfsburg record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.5 on the road.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
VfL Osnabrück record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Wolfsburg vs VfL Osnabrück head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Wolfsburg vs VfL Osnabrück odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.4%, draw 19.7%, away 17.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.21 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.75 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.47 | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.49 | 4.75 | 5.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.51 | 4.84 | 5.41 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .