Garuda Lions
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2. Bundesliga · ·Matchday 10

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC

Garuda Lions Prediction: Hertha BSC

0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability

  • WhyBetter recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Hertha BSC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Hertha BSC

Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern

1. FC Kaiserslautern 35%
Draw 29%
Hertha BSC 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Hertha BSC wins
36%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
81%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
34%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
0 – 1
12% of simulated outcomes

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC

model vs market on the 1X2
Probability1. FC KaiserslauternDrawHertha BSC
Model39.2%36.0%24.8%
Market33.9%26.4%39.7%
Final35.2%28.8%36.0%
Edge+1.3%+2.4%-3.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Hertha BSC

  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.7% per unit staked (our 36.0% × 2.37 − 1).

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC match preview

1. FC Kaiserslautern faces Hertha BSC in a closely matched 2. Bundesliga encounter. The probabilities indicate a slight edge for Hertha BSC at 36%, with Kaiserslautern at 35% and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 12%. Expected goals suggest Kaiserslautern will generate 0.99, while Hertha BSC is forecasted to achieve 0.73.

Recent form shows 1. FC Kaiserslautern with a record of W-W-D-W-L-W, while Hertha BSC is on a strong run, recording W-D-W-W-W-W. In their last three encounters, Kaiserslautern has secured 1 win, while Hertha BSC has won 2. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting the competitive nature of the fixture.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

1. FC Kaisersl ↓ / Hertha BSC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 19% 12% 1 16% 14% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 81%
2+ goals 53%
3+ goals 25%
No goals 19%

1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hertha BSC expected goals

1. FC Kaiserslautern 0.99
Hertha BSC 0.73

Total expected goals: 1.72

1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hertha BSC attack and defence ratings

1. FC Kaiserslautern

Attack 0.75 -25%
Defence 0.51 -49%

Hertha BSC

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

Before and after this match

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Hertha BSC 36.0% 2.78 -3.7% 2.37
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 75.2% 1.33 — —
Both teams to score No 66.1% 1.51 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.2% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 75.2% 1.33 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X21. FC Kaiserslautern35.2%
Draw28.8%
Hertha BSC36.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.524.8%
Under 2.575.2%
Both teams to scoreYes33.9%
No66.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.0%
12 (either side)71.2%
X2 (draw or away)64.8%
Handicap -1Hertha BSC win7.7%
Push (exactly one goal)17.1%
Loss75.2%
Correct score (top 3)0-019.2%
1-016.4%
1-114.2%
Compare prices for this pick

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC stats

1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hertha BSC recent form

newest first
1. FC Kaiserslautern WWDWLW
Hertha BSC WDWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hertha BSC season so far

league record

1. FC Kaiserslautern record

  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Hertha BSC record

  • They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC head-to-head

Last 3 meetings

11. FC Kaiserslautern wins 0Draws 2Hertha BSC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-11Hertha BSC1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga0-1
2025-12-02Hertha BSC1. FC KaiserslauternDFB Pokal6-1
2025-11-081. FC KaiserslauternHertha BSC2. Bundesliga0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.9%, draw 26.4%, away 39.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.73 3.54 2.35
BetVictor 2.70 3.50 2.25
Betano 2.82 3.70 2.35
Dafabet 2.75 3.60 2.32
Marathonbet 2.73 3.54 2.35
Pinnacle 2.86 3.62 2.37
William Hill 2.75 3.30 2.30
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.75 —
X 3.54 —
2 2.35 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Hertha BSC Predicted score 0 – 1 Low Bet Now
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