SpVgg Greuther Fürth
vs
Holstein Kiel
Garuda Lions Prediction: SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — SpVgg Greuther Fürth is the favourite, not a value bet.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel overview
Garuda Lions analysis: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel
| Probability | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Draw | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.6% | 31.4% | 36.0% |
| Market | 40.7% | 24.8% | 34.4% |
| Final | 38.7% | 26.5% | 34.8% |
| Edge | -2.0% | +1.6% | +0.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.0% per unit staked (our 38.7% × 2.35 − 1).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel match preview
SpVgg Greuther Fürth faces Holstein Kiel in a closely matched encounter, with probabilities indicating a 39% chance of a home win for Fürth, a 35% chance for Kiel, and a 26% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Fürth, with expected goals of 1.09 for Fürth and 1.16 for Kiel.
In terms of recent form, Fürth has recorded a mixed set of results with one win in their last six matches, while Kiel has been slightly more consistent, with one win and four draws in their last six outings. Historical head-to-head results show each team has won once in their last two meetings, adding to the competitive nature of this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.25
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel attack and defence ratings
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Holstein Kiel
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig
- Energie Cottbus vs Bochum
- Wolfsburg v VfL Osnabrück — match page
- Darmstadt v 1. FC Magdeburg — match page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern v Hertha BSC — match page
- Karlsruher SC vs FC Heidenheim — team news & stats
- Hannover 96 vs Dynamo Dresden — team news & stats
- St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg — team news & stats
Before and after this match
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 38.7% | 2.58 | -2.0% | 2.35 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.4% | 1.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 38.7% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Holstein Kiel | 34.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.0% |
| No | 53.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth win | 13.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 67.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 11.8% | |
| 0-1 | 10.9% |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel stats
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel recent form
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
LWLDDL |
| Holstein Kiel |
WDLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel season so far
SpVgg Greuther Fürth record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Holstein Kiel record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Holstein Kiel | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2. Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-24 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.7%, draw 24.8%, away 34.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.76 | 2.72 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.29 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.27 | 3.76 | 2.71 |
| Pinnacle | 2.32 | 3.85 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.70 |