Holstein Kiel
vs
Arminia Bielefeld
Garuda Lions Prediction: Holstein Kiel
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Holstein Kiel is the favourite, not a value bet.
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld
| Probability | Holstein Kiel | Draw | Arminia Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.1% | 30.4% | 32.5% |
| Market | 38.4% | 27.9% | 33.7% |
| Final | 38.1% | 28.5% | 33.4% |
| Edge | -0.3% | +0.6% | -0.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.8% per unit staked (our 38.1% × 2.50 − 1).
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld match preview
Holstein Kiel faces Arminia Bielefeld in a 2. Bundesliga matchup with kickoff set for November 7, 2026. According to our model, Holstein Kiel has a 40% probability of winning, while Arminia Bielefeld stands at 33%, and a draw is estimated at 27%. The expected goals for Holstein Kiel are 1.35, compared to 1.12 for Arminia Bielefeld. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Holstein Kiel, occurring with a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, Holstein Kiel has recorded a sequence of draws and losses, with their latest results being D-W-D-L-D-L. Conversely, Arminia Bielefeld has shown more promise with a recent record of W-L-W-W-D-L. Our model indicates a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% probability that both teams will score in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Holstein Kiel and Arminia Bielefeld expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.38
Holstein Kiel and Arminia Bielefeld attack and defence ratings
Holstein Kiel
Arminia Bielefeld
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holstein Kiel | 38.1% | 2.63 | -0.3% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holstein Kiel | 38.1% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Arminia Bielefeld | 33.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.5% |
| No | 50.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Holstein Kiel win | 16.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 62.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-0 | 10.6% | |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld stats
Holstein Kiel and Arminia Bielefeld recent form
| Holstein Kiel |
LDWDLD |
| Arminia Bielefeld |
WLWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Holstein Kiel and Arminia Bielefeld season so far
Holstein Kiel record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
Arminia Bielefeld record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | Arminia Bielefeld | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-10 | Holstein Kiel | Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga | 0-2 |
| 2023-04-02 | Holstein Kiel | Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga | 2-3 |
| 2023-01-14 | Arminia Bielefeld | Holstein Kiel | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2022-09-17 | Arminia Bielefeld | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga | 4-2 |
| 2020-05-30 | Holstein Kiel | Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2019-11-03 | Arminia Bielefeld | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2019-05-19 | Arminia Bielefeld | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga | 1-0 |
| 2018-12-14 | Holstein Kiel | Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.4%, draw 27.9%, away 33.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.42 | 3.32 | 2.77 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.45 | 3.55 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.42 | 3.32 | 2.77 |
| Pinnacle | 2.50 | 3.31 | 2.91 |
| SBO | 2.31 | 3.09 | 2.54 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .