Garuda Lions
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2. Bundesliga · ·Matchday 11

1. FC Magdeburg vs St. Pauli

Garuda Lions Prediction: 1. FC Magdeburg

2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.04.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg

Avnet Arena, MagdeburgReferee: Tom Bauer

1. FC Magdeburg 45%
Draw 25%
St. Pauli 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance 1. FC Magdeburg wins
45%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
94%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
57%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
10% of simulated outcomes

1. FC Magdeburg vs St. Pauli overview

Garuda Lions analysis: 1. FC Magdeburg vs St. Pauli

model vs market on the 1X2
Probability1. FC MagdeburgDrawSt. Pauli
Model59.2%22.9%17.8%
Market40.1%25.9%34.0%
Final44.9%25.2%29.9%
Edge+4.8%-0.7%-4.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why 1. FC Magdeburg

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.04.
  • The market prices 1. FC Magdeburg below our published probability: +4.8 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.7% per unit staked (our 44.9% × 2.40 − 1).

1. FC Magdeburg vs St. Pauli match preview

1. FC Magdeburg hosts St. Pauli in a 2. Bundesliga clash with a predicted outcome favoring the home side. According to our model, 1. FC Magdeburg has a 59% probability of winning, while St. Pauli stands at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance of occurring. The expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg is 2.03, compared to 1.04 for St. Pauli, indicating a stronger offensive performance anticipated from the hosts.

Both teams show mixed recent form, with 1. FC Magdeburg recording a sequence of D-L-W-L-W-D, while St. Pauli has L-D-D-W-D-W. Our model suggests a 59% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance that both teams will score in this matchup. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

1. FC Magdebur ↓ / St. Pauli → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 8% 11% 2 10% 10% 3 6% 7% 4+ 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 59%
No goals 6%

1. FC Magdeburg and St. Pauli expected goals

1. FC Magdeburg 2.03
St. Pauli 1.04

Total expected goals: 3.08

1. FC Magdeburg and St. Pauli attack and defence ratings

1. FC Magdeburg

Attack 1.29 +29%
Defence 1.06 +6%

St. Pauli

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

Before and after this match

1. FC Magdeburg vs St. Pauli markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 1. FC Magdeburg 44.9% 2.23 +4.8% 2.40
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 59.4% 1.68 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.3% 1.75 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.8% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 40.8% 2.45 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X21. FC Magdeburg44.9%
Draw25.2%
St. Pauli29.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559.4%
Under 2.540.6%
Both teams to scoreYes57.3%
No42.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.1%
12 (either side)74.8%
X2 (draw or away)55.1%
Handicap -11. FC Magdeburg win36.7%
Push (exactly one goal)22.5%
Loss40.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.8%
2-19.9%
2-09.5%
Compare prices for this pick

1. FC Magdeburg vs St. Pauli stats

1. FC Magdeburg and St. Pauli recent form

newest first
1. FC Magdeburg DLWLWD
St. Pauli LDDWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

1. FC Magdeburg and St. Pauli season so far

league record

1. FC Magdeburg record

  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.

St. Pauli record

  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.

1. FC Magdeburg vs St. Pauli head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

1. FC Magdeburg vs St. Pauli odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.1%, draw 25.9%, away 34.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.34 3.62 2.73
Bet365 2.30 3.50 2.80
BetVictor 2.30 3.50 2.70
Betano 2.40 3.60 2.80
Betfair 2.38 3.60 2.75
Dafabet 2.40 3.60 2.80
Marathonbet 2.32 3.62 2.72
Pinnacle 2.40 3.61 2.84
SBO 2.22 3.21 2.57
William Hill 2.30 3.40 2.75
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.33 —
X 3.60 ▼ -0.01
2 2.75 ▲ +0.01

10 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 1. FC Magdeburg Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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