Garuda Lions
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2. Bundesliga · ·Matchday 11

Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Garuda Lions Prediction: Dynamo Dresden

2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.16.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Dynamo Dresden is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Dynamo Dresden

Rudolf-Harbig Stadion, DresdenReferee: Michael Bacher

Dynamo Dresden 47%
Draw 26%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Dynamo Dresden wins
47%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
93%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
56%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDynamo DresdenDrawSpVgg Greuther Fürth
Model46.7%27.1%26.2%
Market47.0%25.9%27.1%
Final47.0%26.2%26.9%
Edge-0.1%+0.3%-0.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Dynamo Dresden

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.16.

Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.4% per unit staked (our 47.0% × 2.10 − 1).

Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth match preview

Dynamo Dresden hosts SpVgg Greuther Fürth in a 2. Bundesliga clash with Dynamo Dresden holding a 49% probability of winning, while Greuther Fürth stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, occurring with a 9% probability. The expected goals are 1.61 for Dynamo Dresden and 1.16 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, suggesting a competitive match.

In terms of recent form, Dynamo Dresden has recorded a mixed bag of results with L-W-L-W-D-L, while SpVgg Greuther Fürth has shown slightly better consistency with W-L-W-L-D-D. Historically, in their last 10 encounters, Dynamo Dresden has secured 2 wins, compared to Greuther Fürth's 5 wins and 3 draws, indicating a slight edge for the visitors in their head-to-head record.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Dynamo Dresden ↓ / SpVgg Greuther → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 9% 13% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 52%
No goals 7%

Dynamo Dresden and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected goals

Dynamo Dresden 1.61
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.16

Total expected goals: 2.77

Dynamo Dresden and SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack and defence ratings

Dynamo Dresden

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 1.03 +3%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Attack 0.87 -13%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Dynamo Dresden 47.0% 2.13 -0.1% 2.10
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.2% 1.92 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.0% 1.79 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.8% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.3% 1.88 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Dynamo Dresden47.0%
Draw26.2%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth26.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.2%
Under 2.547.8%
Both teams to scoreYes56.0%
No44.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.1%
12 (either side)73.8%
X2 (draw or away)53.0%
Handicap -1Dynamo Dresden win24.9%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss53.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.9%
2-19.4%
1-09.0%
Compare prices for this pick

Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth stats

Dynamo Dresden and SpVgg Greuther Fürth recent form

newest first
Dynamo Dresden LWLWDL
SpVgg Greuther Fürth WLWLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Dynamo Dresden and SpVgg Greuther Fürth season so far

league record

Dynamo Dresden record

  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth record

  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Dynamo Dresden wins 3Draws 5SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-17Dynamo DresdenSpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga2-0
2025-08-03SpVgg Greuther FürthDynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga3-2
2020-06-09Dynamo DresdenSpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga1-1
2019-10-18SpVgg Greuther FürthDynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga2-0
2019-04-04SpVgg Greuther FürthDynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga0-0
2018-09-30Dynamo DresdenSpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga0-1
2018-02-11SpVgg Greuther FürthDynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga1-0
2017-09-08Dynamo DresdenSpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga1-1
2017-04-21SpVgg Greuther FürthDynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga1-0
2016-11-20Dynamo DresdenSpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.0%, draw 25.9%, away 27.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.97 3.62 3.50
Bet365 2.00 3.60 3.40
BetVictor 2.00 3.60 3.40
Betano 2.10 3.75 3.55
Betfair 1.95 3.70 3.40
Dafabet 1.98 3.70 3.65
Marathonbet 1.95 3.62 3.50
Pinnacle 2.01 3.82 3.68
SBO 1.96 3.40 3.29
William Hill 2.00 3.40 3.30
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.99 ▲ +0.08
X 3.62 ▼ -0.18
2 3.45 ▼ -0.20

14 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Dynamo Dresden Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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