Darmstadt
vs
St. Pauli
Garuda Lions Prediction: St. Pauli
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Darmstadt vs St. Pauli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Darmstadt vs St. Pauli
| Probability | Darmstadt | Draw | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.2% | 27.4% | 34.3% |
| Market | 32.7% | 24.3% | 43.0% |
| Final | 34.1% | 25.1% | 40.8% |
| Edge | +5.6% | +3.1% | -8.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Darmstadt vs St. Pauli match preview
Darmstadt faces St. Pauli in a matchup where the probabilities indicate a competitive contest, with Darmstadt at 34%, a draw at 25%, and St. Pauli leading at 41%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. The expected goals for Darmstadt stand at 1.45, while St. Pauli is slightly behind at 1.38, suggesting a closely matched offensive performance.
In terms of recent form, Darmstadt has recorded a mixed set of results with a sequence of W-L-W-L-L-W, while St. Pauli's form shows W-D-W-D-L-L. Our model indicates a 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance that both teams will score, reflecting the potential for an engaging match. The confidence grade for this analysis is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Darmstadt and St. Pauli expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Darmstadt and St. Pauli attack and defence ratings
Darmstadt
St. Pauli
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Darmstadt vs St. Pauli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Pauli | 40.8% | 2.45 | -8.7% | 2.12 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Darmstadt | 34.1% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| St. Pauli | 40.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.5% |
| No | 41.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Pauli win | 16.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 65.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
Darmstadt vs St. Pauli stats
Darmstadt and St. Pauli recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Darmstadt and St. Pauli season so far
Darmstadt record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
St. Pauli record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Darmstadt vs St. Pauli head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Darmstadt vs St. Pauli odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.7%, draw 24.3%, away 43.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.79 | 3.75 | 2.12 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .