Hertha BSC
vs
Arminia Bielefeld
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hertha BSC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld
| Probability | Hertha BSC | Draw | Arminia Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.9% | 22.8% | 22.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 54.9% | 22.8% | 22.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Hertha BSC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld match preview
Hertha BSC faces Arminia Bielefeld in a 2. Bundesliga clash on October 24, 2026. According to our model, Hertha BSC has a 55% probability of winning, while Arminia Bielefeld stands at 22%, with a 23% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Hertha BSC is 2.09 compared to Arminia Bielefeld's 1.28, indicating a strong offensive outlook for the home side. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, occurring at a 10% likelihood.
Recent form shows Hertha BSC performing well with five consecutive wins and a draw, while Arminia Bielefeld has struggled, managing only one win in their last six matches. There is a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams scoring has a 64% chance, suggesting an engaging encounter is on the horizon.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.37
Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld attack and defence ratings
Hertha BSC
Arminia Bielefeld
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hertha BSC | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.8% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.1% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hertha BSC | 54.9% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| Arminia Bielefeld | 22.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% |
| No | 35.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hertha BSC win | 33.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 45.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.5% |
Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld stats
Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld recent form
| Hertha BSC |
DWWWWW |
| Arminia Bielefeld |
WDLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld season so far
Hertha BSC record
- They have won 7 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arminia Bielefeld record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Arminia Bielefeld | Hertha BSC | 2. Bundesliga | 6-1 |
| 2025-12-19 | Hertha BSC | Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.