Marseille
vs
Olympiakos Piraeus
Garuda Lions Prediction: Marseille
2 β 1 Predicted score Β· 7% model probability
Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus
| Probability | Marseille | Draw | Olympiakos Piraeus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.9% | 24.6% | 48.5% |
| Market | 44.3% | 26.1% | 29.6% |
| Final | 39.9% | 25.7% | 34.4% |
| Edge | -17.4% | -1.5% | +18.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus match preview
Marseille faces Olympiakos Piraeus in the UEFA Europa League with a probability of winning set at 40%, while Olympiakos holds a 34% chance, and a draw is at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Marseille, with a 7% likelihood. The expected goals for Marseille stand at 1.35, compared to 1.86 for Olympiakos.
Recent form shows Marseille struggling with five consecutive losses followed by a single win, while Olympiakos has been more consistent, with four wins, one loss, and one draw in their last six matches. The model indicates a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% probability that both teams will score, reflecting an expectation of an engaging match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Marseille and Olympiakos Piraeus expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.21
Marseille and Olympiakos Piraeus attack and defence ratings
Marseille
Olympiakos Piraeus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marseille | 39.9% | 2.51 | -17.4% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.3% | 1.61 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% | 1.57 | β | β |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.3% | 1.35 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 73.1% | 1.37 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marseille | 39.9% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Olympiakos Piraeus | 34.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% |
| No | 36.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Marseille win | 12.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.8% | |
| Loss | 73.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | |
| 0-2 | 7.0% |
Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus stats
Marseille and Olympiakos Piraeus recent form
| Marseille |
LLLLLW |
| Olympiakos Piraeus |
WWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.3%, draw 26.1%, away 29.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.14 | 3.72 | 3.39 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.20 | 3.65 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.11 | 3.66 | 3.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | 3.61 | 3.15 |
| SBO | 2.15 | 3.12 | 2.74 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .