Falkirk
vs
Dundee
Garuda Lions Prediction: Falkirk
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Falkirk vs Dundee overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Falkirk vs Dundee
| Probability | Falkirk | Draw | Dundee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.8% | 27.6% | 43.6% |
| Market | 46.5% | 26.8% | 26.7% |
| Final | 42.1% | 27.0% | 30.9% |
| Edge | -17.7% | +0.8% | +16.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Falkirk vs Dundee match preview
Falkirk faces Dundee in an intriguing matchup in the Scotland Premiership. Falkirk's recent form shows a mix of results with two draws, a win, and two losses, while Dundee has been more consistent, winning three of their last six matches. The model gives Falkirk a 43% chance of winning, while Dundee sits at 31%, with a 27% probability of a draw. The expected goals indicate a slight edge for Dundee at 1.53 compared to Falkirk's 1.21.
Historically, Falkirk has had the upper hand in their last three encounters, securing two wins against Dundee's single victory. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Falkirk, with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Falkirk and Dundee expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.74
Falkirk and Dundee attack and defence ratings
Falkirk
Dundee
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Falkirk vs Dundee markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Falkirk | 42.1% | 2.38 | -17.7% | 2.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Falkirk | 42.1% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Dundee | 30.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.1% |
| No | 43.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Falkirk win | 12.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.4% | |
| Loss | 71.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 0-1 | 8.7% |
Falkirk vs Dundee stats
Falkirk and Dundee recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Falkirk and Dundee season so far
Falkirk record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
Dundee record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Falkirk vs Dundee head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | Falkirk | Dundee | Scotland Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Dundee | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Falkirk | Dundee | Scotland Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2022-12-08 | Falkirk | Dundee | Challenge Cup | 0-3 |
| 2022-08-30 | Dundee | Falkirk | League Cup | 3-0 |
| 2014-03-29 | Dundee | Falkirk | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2014-01-25 | Falkirk | Dundee | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2013-11-16 | Dundee | Falkirk | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2013-09-21 | Falkirk | Dundee | Championship | 3-1 |
| 2012-04-07 | Dundee | Falkirk | Championship | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Falkirk vs Dundee odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.5%, draw 26.8%, away 26.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.01 | 3.48 | 3.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.65 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.99 | 3.48 | 3.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.01 | 3.60 | 3.61 |
| SBO | 2.02 | 3.07 | 3.04 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
42 snapshots recorded, from .