Motherwell
vs
Celtic
Garuda Lions Prediction: Celtic
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Motherwell vs Celtic overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Motherwell vs Celtic
| Probability | Motherwell | Draw | Celtic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.7% | 24.6% | 47.7% |
| Market | 19.8% | 21.0% | 59.2% |
| Final | 21.8% | 21.9% | 56.3% |
| Edge | +7.9% | +3.6% | -11.4% |
Why Celtic
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.39.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.64, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Motherwell vs Celtic match preview
Celtic enters the match against Motherwell with a strong probability of winning at 60%, while Motherwell has a lower chance at 18%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2, with a 9% likelihood. Recent form shows Motherwell struggling, with three losses in their last four matches, while Celtic has bounced back with three consecutive wins following two losses.
In terms of scoring, the expected goals suggest a competitive match, with Motherwell at 1.39 and Celtic at 1.86. There is a significant chance for goals, as indicated by a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 64% likelihood that both teams will score. Historically, Celtic has had the upper hand in their last four encounters, winning three times against Motherwell's single victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Motherwell and Celtic expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.25
Motherwell and Celtic attack and defence ratings
Motherwell
Celtic
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Motherwell vs Celtic markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celtic | 56.3% | 1.78 | -11.4% | 1.64 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.2% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Motherwell | 21.8% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Celtic | 56.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% |
| No | 35.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 43.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Celtic win | 27.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 52.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 2-1 | 6.9% |
Motherwell vs Celtic stats
Motherwell and Celtic recent form
| Motherwell |
LLLWDL |
| Celtic |
LLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Motherwell and Celtic season so far
Motherwell record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Celtic record
- They have won 6 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Motherwell vs Celtic head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Motherwell | Celtic | Scotland Premiership | 2-3 |
| 2026-03-14 | Celtic | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership | 3-1 |
| 2025-12-30 | Motherwell | Celtic | Scotland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Celtic | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Motherwell vs Celtic odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.8%, draw 21.0%, away 59.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.68 | 4.40 | 1.59 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 1.57 |
| BetVictor | 4.80 | 4.20 | 1.55 |
| Betano | 4.55 | 4.60 | 1.62 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| Dafabet | 4.90 | 4.60 | 1.63 |
| Marathonbet | 4.75 | 4.40 | 1.57 |
| Pinnacle | 4.45 | 4.55 | 1.64 |
| SBO | 4.37 | 3.95 | 1.51 |
| William Hill | 4.60 | 4.00 | 1.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
42 snapshots recorded, from .