Benfica
vs
Celtic
Garuda Lions Prediction: Benfica
2 β 1 Predicted score Β· 9% model probability
Benfica vs Celtic overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Benfica vs Celtic
| Probability | Benfica | Draw | Celtic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.0% | 17.6% | 13.5% |
| Market | 74.7% | 15.8% | 9.5% |
| Final | 73.3% | 16.3% | 10.5% |
| Edge | -5.7% | +1.7% | +4.0% |
Why Benfica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.29, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Benfica vs Celtic match preview
Benfica will host Celtic in the UEFA Europa League on October 15, 2026. The model indicates a strong likelihood of a Benfica victory, with a 69% probability compared to 13% for Celtic and an 18% chance of a draw. The expected goals suggest Benfica may dominate the match, with an expected 2.67 goals, while Celtic is projected to score around 1.15 goals.
Recent form shows Benfica coming off a loss but previously winning five consecutive matches, while Celtic has had a mixed bag with two losses followed by three wins in their last six games. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Benfica, with a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Benfica and Celtic expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.83
Benfica and Celtic attack and defence ratings
Benfica
Celtic
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Benfica vs Celtic markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica | 73.3% | 1.36 | -5.7% | 1.29 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.6% | 1.36 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% | 1.55 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.5% | 1.12 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win | 48.8% | 2.05 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica | 73.3% |
| Draw | 16.3% | |
| Celtic | 10.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% |
| No | 35.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win | 48.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 31.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.0% |
| 3-1 | 8.0% | |
| 2-0 | 7.8% |
Benfica vs Celtic stats
Benfica and Celtic recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Benfica and Celtic season so far
Benfica record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- They average 4.7 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Benfica vs Celtic head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Benfica vs Celtic odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 74.7%, draw 15.8%, away 9.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.29 | 6.03 | 11.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.22 | 5.75 | 10.00 |
| Betano | 1.28 | 5.90 | 10.25 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.27 | 6.20 | 9.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.27 | 5.95 | 11.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.26 | 6.19 | 9.78 |
| SBO | 1.24 | 5.03 | 7.24 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.80 | 9.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .