Benfica
vs
Vitória SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Benfica
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Benfica vs Vitória SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Benfica vs Vitória SC
| Probability | Benfica | Draw | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77.8% | 15.4% | 6.9% |
| Market | 77.5% | 14.6% | 7.9% |
| Final | 77.6% | 14.8% | 7.6% |
| Edge | +0.2% | +0.8% | -1.0% |
Why Benfica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.23, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Benfica vs Vitória SC match preview
Benfica will host Vitória SC in the Primeira Liga on October 11, 2026, with a strong probability of winning at 75%. The recent form of both teams indicates a stark contrast; Benfica has won five of their last six matches, while Vitória SC has struggled, recording just one win in their last six games. The expected goals suggest Benfica is likely to dominate the match, with an expected goals tally of 2.60 compared to Vitória SC's 0.69.
Historically, Benfica has performed well against Vitória SC, winning both of their last two encounters without conceding. The most likely scoreline for this match is 2-0, which aligns with the 64% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored. Additionally, there is a 47% chance that both teams will score in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Benfica and Vitória SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.29
Benfica and Vitória SC attack and defence ratings
Benfica
Vitória SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Benfica vs Vitória SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica | 77.6% | 1.29 | +0.2% | 1.23 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.4% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica | 77.6% |
| Draw | 14.8% | |
| Vitória SC | 7.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.6% |
| No | 53.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 22.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win | 57.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 22.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.6% |
| 3-0 | 11.0% | |
| 1-0 | 9.0% |
Benfica vs Vitória SC stats
Benfica and Vitória SC recent form
| Benfica |
LWWWWW |
| Vitória SC |
DLDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Benfica and Vitória SC season so far
Benfica record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.5 goals per match.
- They average 4.7 goals per game on the road against 2.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Vitória SC record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Benfica vs Vitória SC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Benfica | Vitória SC | Primeira Liga | 3-0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Vitória SC | Benfica | Primeira Liga | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Benfica vs Vitória SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 77.5%, draw 14.6%, away 7.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.22 | 7.33 | 13.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.18 | 6.00 | 11.50 |
| Betano | 1.23 | 6.50 | 12.00 |
| Betfair | 1.18 | 6.50 | 13.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.23 | 6.80 | 12.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.20 | 6.40 | 12.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.21 | 6.76 | 11.17 |
| SBO | 1.17 | 5.61 | 9.06 |
| William Hill | 1.22 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .