Maritimo
vs
FC Porto
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Porto
0 – 2 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Maritimo vs FC Porto overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Maritimo vs FC Porto
| Probability | Maritimo | Draw | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.9% | 23.9% | 61.1% |
| Market | 9.9% | 18.7% | 71.4% |
| Final | 11.2% | 20.0% | 68.8% |
| Edge | +5.0% | +5.2% | -10.2% |
Why FC Porto
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Maritimo vs FC Porto match preview
Maritimo faces FC Porto in an upcoming Primeira Liga match on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a strong likelihood of a Porto victory, with a 68% probability compared to Maritimo's 12% and a 20% chance of a draw. The most probable scoreline is 0-2, occurring at a rate of 12%. Recent form shows Maritimo with two draws and three losses in their last five matches, while FC Porto has won six of their last seven games.
In terms of expected goals, Maritimo is projected to score 0.83, while FC Porto is expected to net 1.88. The probability of over 2.5 goals in the match stands at 51%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 49%. Overall, the confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a blend of model probabilities and market odds.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Maritimo and FC Porto expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Maritimo and FC Porto attack and defence ratings
Maritimo
FC Porto
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Maritimo vs FC Porto markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Porto | 68.8% | 1.45 | -10.2% | 1.35 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 88.8% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.7% | 2.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maritimo | 11.2% |
| Draw | 20.0% | |
| FC Porto | 68.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.9% |
| No | 51.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 31.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 88.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Porto win | 37.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 38.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 11.7% |
| 0-1 | 11.4% | |
| 1-1 | 11.4% |
Maritimo vs FC Porto stats
Maritimo and FC Porto recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Maritimo and FC Porto season so far
Maritimo record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
FC Porto record
- They have won 7 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Maritimo vs FC Porto head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-01 | Maritimo | FC Porto | Primeira Liga | 0-2 |
| 2022-08-06 | FC Porto | Maritimo | Primeira Liga | 5-1 |
| 2022-01-30 | FC Porto | Maritimo | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 2021-08-22 | Maritimo | FC Porto | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
| 2021-02-22 | Maritimo | FC Porto | Primeira Liga | 1-2 |
| 2020-10-03 | FC Porto | Maritimo | Primeira Liga | 2-3 |
| 2020-06-10 | FC Porto | Maritimo | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2019-10-30 | Maritimo | FC Porto | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
| 2019-03-16 | FC Porto | Maritimo | Primeira Liga | 3-0 |
| 2018-11-03 | Maritimo | FC Porto | Primeira Liga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Maritimo vs FC Porto odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 9.9%, draw 18.7%, away 71.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 10.50 | 5.43 | 1.33 |
| Bet365 | 8.50 | 5.00 | 1.33 |
| BetVictor | 9.50 | 4.60 | 1.30 |
| Betano | 9.50 | 5.00 | 1.34 |
| Betfair | 10.50 | 5.00 | 1.29 |
| Dafabet | 9.40 | 5.20 | 1.35 |
| Marathonbet | 9.60 | 4.95 | 1.30 |
| Pinnacle | 9.35 | 5.15 | 1.32 |
| SBO | 7.14 | 4.36 | 1.30 |
| William Hill | 9.00 | 5.00 | 1.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .