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Primeira Liga · Full time ·Matchday 8

Maritimo vs FC Porto

1 – 2 Full time

16′Gábor Szalai
36′Alan Gonzalo Varela
42′Victor Froholdt
45′Alan Gonzalo VarelaPablo Rosario
54′Hwang In-BeomGabri Veiga
55′William GomesBorja Sainz
57′Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa
66′Tomas TavaresSimo Bouzaidi
66′Maxime DominguezRodri Andrade
66′André SilvaSamuel Aghehowa
78′Adrián ButzkeMons Rogeani Bassouamina
79′Martín TejónMaurice Boakye
79′Eduardo Gabriel Aquino CossaOskar Pietuszewski
84′Oskar Pietuszewski
87′Igor Julião
89′Ibrahim Akitunde AlaniSamuel Bamba

Estádio do Marítimo, FunchalReferee: Joao Goncalves

Maritimo 10%
Draw 19%
FC Porto 70%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 19
4 Shots on target 9
42 Possession % 58
2 Corners 6
15 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 2
7 Saves 3
221 Accurate passes 346

Maritimo vs FC Porto overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Maritimo vs FC Porto

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMaritimoDrawFC Porto
Model14.8%23.8%61.4%
Market9.0%17.6%73.4%
Final10.5%19.1%70.4%
Edge+1.4%+1.6%-3.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Porto

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.83.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Maritimo ↓ / FC Porto → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 11% 12% 7% 1 11% 10% 6% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Maritimo and FC Porto expected goals

Maritimo 0.83
FC Porto 1.89

Total expected goals: 2.72

Maritimo and FC Porto attack and defence ratings

Maritimo

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 1.15 +15%

FC Porto

Attack 1.34 +34%
Defence 0.67 -33%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Maritimo vs FC Porto: result vs prediction

Maritimo 1 – 2 FC Porto

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Primeira Liga

Before and after this match

Maritimo vs FC Porto markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Porto 70.4% 1.42 -3.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.1% 1.96 — —
Both teams to score No 51.1% 1.96 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 89.5% 1.12 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 38.6% 2.59 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Maritimo10.5%
Draw19.1%
FC Porto70.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.1%
Under 2.548.9%
Both teams to scoreYes48.9%
No51.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)29.6%
12 (either side)80.9%
X2 (draw or away)89.5%
Handicap -1FC Porto win37.3%
Push (exactly one goal)24.1%
Loss38.6%
Correct score (top 3)0-211.8%
0-111.4%
1-111.4%

Maritimo vs FC Porto stats

Maritimo and FC Porto recent form

newest first
Maritimo DLLLDW
FC Porto WWLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Maritimo and FC Porto going into this match

league record before kick-off

Maritimo record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.

FC Porto record

  • They have won 7 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Maritimo vs FC Porto head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Maritimo wins 2Draws 7FC Porto wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-02-01MaritimoFC PortoPrimeira Liga0-2
2022-08-06FC PortoMaritimoPrimeira Liga5-1
2022-01-30FC PortoMaritimoPrimeira Liga2-1
2021-08-22MaritimoFC PortoPrimeira Liga1-1
2021-02-22MaritimoFC PortoPrimeira Liga1-2
2020-10-03FC PortoMaritimoPrimeira Liga2-3
2020-06-10FC PortoMaritimoPrimeira Liga1-0
2019-10-30MaritimoFC PortoPrimeira Liga1-1
2019-03-16FC PortoMaritimoPrimeira Liga3-0
2018-11-03MaritimoFC PortoPrimeira Liga0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Maritimo vs FC Porto odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 9.0%, draw 17.6%, away 73.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 11.80 5.69 1.30
Bet365 9.50 5.50 1.30
BetVictor 10.50 5.00 1.25
Betano 10.50 5.40 1.34
Betfair 11.00 5.50 1.25
Dafabet 10.00 5.40 1.32
Marathonbet 10.50 5.20 1.27
Pinnacle 11.34 5.92 1.28
SBO 8.30 4.76 1.30
William Hill 10.00 5.00 1.29

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 10.50 ▲ +2.00
X 5.40 ▲ +0.55
2 1.29 ▼ -0.03

14 snapshots recorded, from .