Arouca
vs
Estrela
Garuda Lions Prediction: Arouca
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Arouca vs Estrela overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arouca vs Estrela
| Probability | Arouca | Draw | Estrela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.5% | 22.8% | 21.6% |
| Market | 45.0% | 27.2% | 27.8% |
| Final | 47.6% | 26.1% | 26.3% |
| Edge | +10.6% | -4.4% | -6.2% |
Why Arouca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.26.
- The market prices Arouca below the model: +10.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Arouca vs Estrela match preview
Arouca faces Estrela in a Primeira Liga match with Arouca holding a 46% probability of victory, while both a draw and an Estrela win are at 27%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Arouca, with a 10% chance of occurring. The match is expected to feature over 2.5 goals at 65%, and both teams are likely to score, with a 64% probability.
In terms of recent form, Arouca has recorded a draw, two losses, a win, and another loss in their last five matches, while Estrela has a mixed record with two draws, a win, and two more draws in their recent outings. The expected goals for Arouca stand at 2.08, compared to Estrela's 1.25, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arouca and Estrela expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.34
Arouca and Estrela attack and defence ratings
Arouca
Estrela
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arouca vs Estrela markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arouca | 47.6% | 2.10 | +10.6% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.5% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arouca | 47.6% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Estrela | 26.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% |
| No | 36.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arouca win | 34.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 44.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.7% |
Arouca vs Estrela stats
Arouca and Estrela recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arouca and Estrela season so far
Arouca record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estrela record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arouca vs Estrela head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Arouca | Estrela | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Estrela | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arouca vs Estrela odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.0%, draw 27.2%, away 27.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.14 | 3.62 | 3.48 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.45 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.05 | 3.48 | 3.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.08 | 3.53 | 3.48 |
| SBO | 2.09 | 2.99 | 2.95 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .