Arouca
vs
Estrela
1 – 0 Full time
| 5′ | Iván Barbero | ||
| 45′ | Pablo Gozálbez | ||
| 45′ | Iván Barbero | ||
| 45′ | Abraham Marcus | ||
| 50′ | Max Scholze | ||
| 57′ | Pablo GozálbezPedro Santos | ||
| 61′ | Ianis StoicaBeni Souza | ||
| 62′ | Max ScholzeJefferson Encada | ||
| 62′ | Pedro Santos | ||
| 65′ | Iván BarberoDylan Nandín | ||
| 65′ | Näis DjouahraGabrijel Rukavina | ||
| 79′ | Taichi FukuiLee Hyun-ju | ||
| 80′ | Alfonso TrezzaBrian Mansilla | ||
| 81′ | Taichi Fukui | ||
| 82′ | Eddy DouéEmerson Vanga | ||
| 88′ | Jose Fontán | ||
| 90′ | Lovro ZvonarekAlisson Souza | ||
| 90′ | Santiago SerraKevin Hoog Jansson |
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 37 | Possession % | 63 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Offsides | 3 |
| 2 | Saves | 2 |
| 264 | Accurate passes | 505 |
Arouca vs Estrela overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arouca vs Estrela
| Probability | Arouca | Draw | Estrela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.2% | 22.9% | 21.9% |
| Market | 44.0% | 27.7% | 28.3% |
| Final | 46.8% | 26.5% | 26.7% |
| Edge | +2.8% | -1.2% | -1.6% |
Why Arouca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.26.
- The market prices Arouca below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arouca and Estrela expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.34
Arouca and Estrela attack and defence ratings
Arouca
Estrela
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Arouca vs Estrela: result vs prediction
Arouca 1 – 0 Estrela
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arouca vs Estrela markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arouca | 46.8% | 2.14 | +2.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arouca | 46.8% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Estrela | 26.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% |
| No | 36.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arouca win | 34.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 44.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
Arouca vs Estrela stats
Arouca and Estrela recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arouca and Estrela going into this match
Arouca record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estrela record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
Arouca vs Estrela head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Arouca | Estrela | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Estrela | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 3-1 |
| 2025-04-19 | Arouca | Estrela | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-12-09 | Estrela | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-05 | Arouca | Estrela | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
| 2023-12-28 | Estrela | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arouca vs Estrela odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.0%, draw 27.7%, away 28.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.14 | 3.64 | 3.46 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.35 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.32 |
| Pinnacle | 2.20 | 3.54 | 3.36 |
| SBO | 2.11 | 3.21 | 3.08 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .