Garuda Lions
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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 64

Fazendense vs Estrela

1 – 2 Full time

64′Alisson SouzaB. Souza
64′I. StoicaA. Marcus
65′T. Moustier
70′M. PiresD. A. Bacalhau C. F. T.
77′Joan JordanL. Zvonarek
77′L. AntonettiH. Poniewas
78′T. Moustier
79′I. Magalhaes
85′T. Moustier
87′J. EncadaM. Scholze
87′T. GomezG. Barbosa
87′A. FernandesD. Costa
88′Fazendense

Complexo Desportivo Prof. Jose Sousa Gomes - Campo 2

Fazendense 19%
Draw 14%
Estrela 67%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Fazendense vs Estrela overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Fazendense vs Estrela

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFazendenseDrawEstrela
Model64.1%20.1%15.9%
Market3.9%12.1%84.0%
Final19.0%14.1%67.0%
Edge+15.0%+2.0%-17.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Fazendense ↓ / Estrela → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 9% 2 8% 10% 5% 3 7% 8% 4+ 7% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

Fazendense and Estrela expected goals

Fazendense 2.39
Estrela 1.13

Total expected goals: 3.51

Fazendense and Estrela attack and defence ratings

Fazendense

Attack 1.29 +29%
Defence 0.85 -15%

Estrela

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Fazendense vs Estrela: result vs prediction

Fazendense 1 – 2 Estrela

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 64 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Fazendense vs Estrela markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Estrela 67.0% 1.49 -17.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.9% 1.47 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.2% 1.61 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 85.9% 1.16 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 84.4% 1.19 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Fazendense19.0%
Draw14.1%
Estrela67.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.9%
Under 2.532.1%
Both teams to scoreYes62.2%
No37.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)33.0%
12 (either side)85.9%
X2 (draw or away)81.0%
Handicap -1Estrela win6.0%
Push (exactly one goal)9.6%
Loss84.4%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.6%
1-18.9%
2-08.5%

Fazendense vs Estrela stats

Fazendense and Estrela recent form

newest first
Fazendense WWL
Estrela LLDWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.

Fazendense vs Estrela head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Fazendense vs Estrela odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 3.9%, draw 12.1%, away 84.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 25.00 7.50 1.10
Bet365 19.00 9.00 1.09
BetVictor 22.00 9.00 1.06
Marathonbet 25.00 7.50 1.10
Pinnacle 16.33 7.75 1.08
William Hill 29.00 6.50 1.11

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.