Fazendense
vs
Estrela
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fazendense
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Fazendense vs Estrela overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fazendense vs Estrela
| Probability | Fazendense | Draw | Estrela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.8% | 20.0% | 18.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 61.8% | 20.0% | 18.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Fazendense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 1.29.
Fazendense vs Estrela match preview
Fazendense hosts Estrela in the Taça de Portugal on October 18, 2026, with a strong probability of winning at 62%. The expected goals for Fazendense stand at 2.43, while Estrela's expected goals are significantly lower at 1.29. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Fazendense, with a 9% likelihood.
Recent form shows Fazendense with two wins followed by a loss, while Estrela has a mixed record of one loss, two draws, and two wins. The probabilities indicate a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance that both teams will score, suggesting an engaging match ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fazendense and Estrela expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.72
Fazendense and Estrela attack and defence ratings
Fazendense
Estrela
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fazendense vs Estrela markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fazendense | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Fazendense win | 41.1% | 2.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fazendense | 61.8% |
| Draw | 20.0% | |
| Estrela | 18.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% |
| No | 33.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fazendense win | 41.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 38.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 8.4% | |
| 3-1 | 7.5% |
Fazendense vs Estrela stats
Fazendense and Estrela recent form
| Fazendense |
WWL |
| Estrela |
LDWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.