Farense
vs
AD Marco 09
3 – 0 Full time
| 2′ | Gabriel Barbosa | ||
| 16′ | J. Resende | ||
| 30′ | Farense | ||
| 34′ | Farense | ||
| 60′ | AD Marco 09 | ||
| 70′ | AD Marco 09 | ||
| 71′ | T. Herrero | ||
| 76′ | Farense |
Farense vs AD Marco 09 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Farense vs AD Marco 09
| Probability | Farense | Draw | AD Marco 09 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.1% | 34.3% | 17.7% |
| Market | 70.7% | 18.9% | 10.4% |
| Final | 65.0% | 22.8% | 12.2% |
| Edge | -5.7% | +3.8% | +1.8% |
Why Farense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.14 vs 0.58.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Farense and AD Marco 09 expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.72
Farense and AD Marco 09 attack and defence ratings
Farense
AD Marco 09
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Farense vs AD Marco 09: result vs prediction
Farense 3 – 0 AD Marco 09
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Farense vs AD Marco 09 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Farense | 65.0% | 1.54 | -5.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.8% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Farense | 65.0% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| AD Marco 09 | 12.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 75.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.2% |
| No | 68.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Farense win | 21.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.7% | |
| Loss | 52.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 19.2% |
| 0-0 | 19.1% | |
| 1-1 | 13.1% |
Farense vs AD Marco 09 stats
Farense and AD Marco 09 recent form
| Farense |
WWWDLD |
| AD Marco 09 |
WWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Farense vs AD Marco 09 head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | AD Marco 09 | Farense | Taça de Portugal | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Farense vs AD Marco 09 odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.7%, draw 18.9%, away 10.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.30 | 4.90 | 9.35 |
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 4.50 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 4.80 | 8.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.29 | 4.90 | 9.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.28 | 5.00 | 9.25 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 4.40 | 8.00 |