Farense
vs
AD Marco 09
Garuda Lions Prediction: Farense
1 – 0 Predicted score · 20% model probability
Farense vs AD Marco 09 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Farense vs AD Marco 09
| Probability | Farense | Draw | AD Marco 09 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.9% | 34.8% | 17.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.9% | 34.8% | 17.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Farense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.11 vs 0.56.
Farense vs AD Marco 09 match preview
Farense will face AD Marco 09 in the Taça de Portugal on October 17, 2026. The model indicates a 39% chance of a win for Farense, with a similar 39% likelihood for a draw, while AD Marco 09 has a 22% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Farense, with an expected goals metric of 0.89 for Farense and 0.60 for AD Marco 09.
In terms of recent form, Farense has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while AD Marco 09 has achieved four wins and one loss in the same timeframe. Historically, in their last encounter, Farense has won once against AD Marco 09, who has yet to secure a victory against them.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Farense and AD Marco 09 expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.67
Farense and AD Marco 09 attack and defence ratings
Farense
AD Marco 09
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Farense vs AD Marco 09 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Farense | 47.9% | 2.09 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 70.2% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.7% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Farense | 47.9% |
| Draw | 34.8% | |
| AD Marco 09 | 17.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 76.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.8% |
| No | 70.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 65.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Farense win | 20.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.0% | |
| Loss | 52.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.0% |
| 1-0 | 19.8% | |
| 1-1 | 12.8% |
Farense vs AD Marco 09 stats
Farense and AD Marco 09 recent form
| Farense |
WWDLDW |
| AD Marco 09 |
WWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Farense vs AD Marco 09 head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | AD Marco 09 | Farense | Taça de Portugal | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.