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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 64

União Santarém vs GIL Vicente

2 – 3 Full time

9′A. Espigares
46′R. Camacho
53′A. Moreira
55′R. Mordomo
56′S. DiarraTiago Andre
57′D. Prioste
62′J. FernandesZe Carlos
62′M. FernandezT. Toure
62′D. PriosteWalace Franca
62′Guilherme GomesR. Esgaio
74′L. MartinsB. Sousa
74′R. CamachoJ. Nobrega
74′A. MoreiraMurilo de Souza
78′CostinhaG. Isnaba
85′R. Esgaio
89′S. Garcia
96′R. MordomoD. Ressurreicao
96′A. SoumareM. Pami
105′M. Pami
108′B. Sousa
109′Ze Carlos

Campo Cha das Padeiras, Santarem

União Santarém 22%
Draw 23%
GIL Vicente 55%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

União Santarém vs GIL Vicente overview

Garuda Lions analysis: União Santarém vs GIL Vicente

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUnião SantarémDrawGIL Vicente
Model50.7%28.7%20.6%
Market12.2%21.7%66.1%
Final21.9%23.4%54.7%
Edge+9.6%+1.8%-11.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why GIL Vicente

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

União Santarém ↓ / GIL Vicente → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 7% 1 13% 13% 2 11% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 69%
3+ goals 42%
No goals 11%

União Santarém and GIL Vicente expected goals

União Santarém 1.49
GIL Vicente 0.86

Total expected goals: 2.36

União Santarém and GIL Vicente attack and defence ratings

União Santarém

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 0.88 -12%

GIL Vicente

Attack 0.65 -35%
Defence 0.73 -27%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

União Santarém vs GIL Vicente: result vs prediction

União Santarém 2 – 3 GIL Vicente

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 64 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

União Santarém vs GIL Vicente markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 GIL Vicente 54.7% 1.83 -11.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 58.1% 1.72 — —
Both teams to score No 53.9% 1.85 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 78.1% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 79.4% 1.26 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2União Santarém21.9%
Draw23.4%
GIL Vicente54.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541.9%
Under 2.558.1%
Both teams to scoreYes46.1%
No53.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)45.3%
12 (either side)76.6%
X2 (draw or away)78.1%
Handicap -1GIL Vicente win7.1%
Push (exactly one goal)13.5%
Loss79.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.4%
1-012.9%
0-010.7%

União Santarém vs GIL Vicente stats

União Santarém and GIL Vicente recent form

newest first
União Santarém WL
GIL Vicente WDLLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.

União Santarém vs GIL Vicente head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

União Santarém vs GIL Vicente odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 12.2%, draw 22.3%, away 65.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 7.50 3.98 1.44
Bet365 7.50 4.00 1.38
BetVictor 6.50 4.00 1.44
Betano 6.60 4.10 1.40
Betfair 7.50 4.33 1.33
Dafabet 7.60 4.60 1.43
Marathonbet 7.60 4.15 1.40
Pinnacle 7.31 4.38 1.38
William Hill 6.50 3.75 1.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 7.50 ▲ +0.30
X 4.24 ▲ +0.24
2 1.39 ▼ -0.05

2 snapshots recorded, from .