União Santarém
vs
GIL Vicente
Garuda Lions Prediction: União Santarém
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
União Santarém vs GIL Vicente overview
Garuda Lions analysis: União Santarém vs GIL Vicente
| Probability | União Santarém | Draw | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.7% | 26.7% | 18.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 54.7% | 26.7% | 18.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why União Santarém
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.86.
União Santarém vs GIL Vicente match preview
In the upcoming Taça de Portugal match, União Santarém faces GIL Vicente on October 14, 2026. The model indicates a 55% probability of a União Santarém victory, while a draw stands at 27% and GIL Vicente at 19%. The expected goals suggest União Santarém has an advantage with 1.66 compared to GIL Vicente's 0.87, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
Recent form shows União Santarém with a win followed by a loss, while GIL Vicente has recorded two draws and two losses before a recent win. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of União Santarém, with a 12% probability. Additionally, there is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
União Santarém and GIL Vicente expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.36
União Santarém and GIL Vicente attack and defence ratings
União Santarém
GIL Vicente
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
União Santarém vs GIL Vicente markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | União Santarém | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.4% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.3% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | União Santarém | 54.7% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| GIL Vicente | 18.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.3% |
| No | 51.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | União Santarém win | 26.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 49.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-0 | 12.1% | |
| 2-0 | 10.9% |
União Santarém vs GIL Vicente stats
União Santarém and GIL Vicente recent form
| União Santarém |
WL |
| GIL Vicente |
WDLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.