Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·Round of 128
União Santarém
vs
Merelinense
5 – 0 Full time
| 41′ | União Santarém | ||
| 49′ | União Santarém | ||
| 66′ | União Santarém | ||
| 70′ | União Santarém | ||
| 82′ | União Santarém |
União Santarém
27%
Draw
27%
Merelinense
46%
União Santarém vs Merelinense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: União Santarém vs Merelinense
| Probability | União Santarém | Draw | Merelinense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.9% | 27.0% | 46.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 26.9% | 27.0% | 46.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Merelinense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 1 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
53%
No goals
7%
União Santarém and Merelinense expected goals
União Santarém
1.18
Merelinense
1.62
Total expected goals: 2.80
União Santarém and Merelinense attack and defence ratings
União Santarém
Attack
0.83 -17%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Merelinense
Attack
1.04 +4%
Defence
0.83 -17%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
União Santarém vs Merelinense: result vs prediction
União Santarém 5 – 0 Merelinense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
União Santarém vs Merelinense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Merelinense | 46.1% | 2.17 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | União Santarém | 26.9% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Merelinense | 46.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% |
| No | 43.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Merelinense win | 24.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 53.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | |
| 0-1 | 8.7% |
União Santarém vs Merelinense stats
União Santarém and Merelinense recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.