Atlético CP
vs
Lagoa
4 – 1 Full time
| 2′ | Nicolas Souza | ||
| 43′ | Nicolas Souza | ||
| 55′ | Nicolas Souza | ||
| 62′ | C. Santana | ||
| 90′ | Lagoa |
Atlético CP vs Lagoa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atlético CP vs Lagoa
| Probability | Atlético CP | Draw | Lagoa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.7% | 23.9% | 17.4% |
| Market | 67.1% | 22.7% | 10.2% |
| Final | 65.0% | 23.0% | 12.0% |
| Edge | -8.4% | +1.2% | +7.2% |
Why Atlético CP
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 4 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atlético CP and Lagoa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.88
Atlético CP and Lagoa attack and defence ratings
Atlético CP
Lagoa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atlético CP vs Lagoa: result vs prediction
Atlético CP 4 – 1 Lagoa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
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Before and after this match
Atlético CP vs Lagoa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlético CP | 65.0% | 1.54 | -8.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.0% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlético CP | 65.0% |
| Draw | 23.0% | |
| Lagoa | 12.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% |
| No | 46.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlético CP win | 34.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 42.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-0 | 10.3% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Atlético CP vs Lagoa stats
Atlético CP and Lagoa recent form
| Atlético CP |
WLWW |
| Lagoa |
L |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.
Atlético CP vs Lagoa head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Atlético CP vs Lagoa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 67.1%, draw 22.7%, away 10.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.34 | 3.88 | 9.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 4.33 | 7.50 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 4.20 | 8.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.33 | 3.88 | 9.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.38 | 3.71 | 7.30 |
| William Hill | 1.33 | 4.00 | 9.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .