Vitória de Sernache
vs
Varzim
2 – 1 Full time
| 16′ | Lucas Daniel | ||
| 75′ | F. Silva | ||
| 84′ | D. Tavares | ||
| 90′ | Henrique Cavalcante | ||
| 90′ | F. Silva |
Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim
| Probability | Vitória de Sernache | Draw | Varzim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.8% | 21.4% | 26.8% |
| Market | 20.9% | 27.3% | 51.7% |
| Final | 28.7% | 25.8% | 45.5% |
| Edge | +30.8% | -6.0% | -24.9% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vitória de Sernache and Varzim expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.94
Vitória de Sernache and Varzim attack and defence ratings
Vitória de Sernache
Varzim
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim: result vs prediction
Vitória de Sernache 2 – 1 Varzim
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Varzim | 45.5% | 2.20 | -24.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitória de Sernache | 28.7% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Varzim | 45.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.4% |
| No | 26.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Varzim win | 13.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.0% | |
| Loss | 72.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.4% |
| 1-1 | 8.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim stats
Vitória de Sernache and Varzim recent form
| Vitória de Sernache |
WL |
| Varzim |
WL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.
Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.9%, draw 27.3%, away 51.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.72 | 3.28 | 1.70 |
| Bet365 | 3.80 | 3.50 | 1.75 |
| BetVictor | 4.33 | 3.40 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 4.20 | 3.40 | 1.75 |
| Marathonbet | 4.60 | 3.28 | 1.68 |
| Pinnacle | 4.32 | 3.31 | 1.79 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.20 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .